Is the Government’s loss of support unusual?
A reader inquired if the support lost by the major party of Government since the election is a record. I didn’t think so, but have now gone and checked the data. This compares the 1st 1 News poll of the middle year of a term against the last election result.
- 2008: +9%
- 1996: +8%
- 1999: +8%
- 2017: +8%
- 1984: +6%
- 1993: +3%
- 2011: +2%
- 1981: +1%
- 2014: +0%
- 1978: -1%
- 1975: -2%
- 2005: -2%
- 2002: -3%
- 2023: -4%
- 1987: -9%
- 2020: -10%
- 1990: -22%
So the biggest gain at the beginning of the mid year was the 2008 – 2011 National Government which was up 9% and the biggest fall was the 1990 – 1993 National Government which was down a massive 22%.
More Governments were up than down in the start of the middle year of their term, but the 4% drop for the Government is far from the biggest fall.