Hartwich on Ukraine and Trump
Oliver Hartwich writes:
As Estonia’s former Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, now EU foreign policy chief, put it, “Why are we giving Russia everything they want even before negotiations have started?”
The dangers of this approach are enormous. A victory for Putin would embolden every authoritarian regime worldwide. It would signal that military aggression pays, that nuclear blackmail works, and that the West’s security alliance is not worth the paper it is written on.
Let us be clear about what is happening. The US is not just abandoning Ukraine. By pre-emptively ruling out NATO membership and accepting Russia’s territorial gains, Washington is capitulating to Moscow’s demands before negotiations even begin.
As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt observed on X, “It’s certainly an innovative approach to a negotiation to make very major concessions even before they have started. Not even Chamberlain went that low in 1938.”
It is hard to think of a worse way to try and negotiate an end to the war. Unilateral concessions before you get anything in return.
Just as letting Hitler take the Sudetenland did not prevent World War II but made it more likely, surrendering Ukrainian territory to Putin will not bring peace. As I noted last year (Europe’s precarious security could invite Putin to expand war, 26 January 2024), European weakness will only encourage Putin further.
Moldova is probably next, and Georgia and Poland are very worried also.
If Ukraine falls, China might move on Taiwan, calculating that US deterrence is at a low point. Iran could escalate in the Middle East through its proxies. North Korea might fire missiles over Japan or even test nuclear weapons in a show of defiance. Aggressive powers will all be emboldened if America leaves Ukraine to Putin.
Incentives matter. Rewarding Putin for his acts of aggression encourages more aggression.
What we are witnessing is thus the end of the post-World War II international order. German foreign affairs expert Thomas Jäger put it starkly: “The rules-based international order existed only as long as it was supported by US power. That is over. It has not existed since 12 February 2025.”
The old rules-based order Jäger refers to was built on international law, mutual defence commitments and secure borders – all policed by the US.
The new world emerging will be more like the 19th century: great powers pursuing their interests through force – and smaller nations forced to accept their fate. That order terminated with the two world wars.
This time, it will be worse. Today’s great powers have nuclear weapons, cyber warfare capabilities and a whole arsenal of tools for destabilising other countries through disinformation and economic coercion.
Sadly this is right, and we need to start building alliances that do not rely on the US.