Stats NZ needs to be more accurate

Radio NZ reports:

Stats NZ is reviewing its systems after data incorrectly overstated Wellington’s job losses.

As more Health New Zealand cuts were revealed, business employment data painted a very bleak picture of the capital.

Economist Shamubeel Eaqub compiled data from this source that showed that from a year ago, the number of jobs in Wellington City has dropped 19,430.

That is equal to 11.6 percent of the jobs in that area.

Scoop points out:

A report last week about job losses in Wellington has been corrected by Stats NZ. Stats NZ has told The Post that incorrect data was supplied which inflated Wellington’s job loss numbers. The actual number of job losses was closer to 2000 ‒ a 2% drop instead of 11%.

This is a huge difference. And like most misinformation, many people will not see the correction. The claimed of 20,000 jobs lost in Wellington was all over social media, while the correction is almost invisible.

Sort of related to this, we have the latest GDP data:

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 1.0 percent in the September 2024 quarter, following a revised 1.1 percent decrease in the June 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

The update to the June 2024 quarter growth rate reflects the incorporation of annual data, a process completed by Stats NZ each October. In this instance, while the June quarter growth rate has been revised downward, the overall level of economic activity has been revised upward over a longer period.

Revisions to GDP data are normal, and to be encouraged. However this is no minor revision – it is the largest I can ever recall. Three months ago Stats NZ said:

In the June 2024 quarter, compared with the March 2024 quarter: GDP fell 0.2 percent

A revision from -0.2% to -1.1% is huge. The difference is about $4 billion. Decisions were made on that GDP data by the Reserve Bank, the Government, banks etc. It basically isn’t good enough.