Scoring my 2024 predictions

My 2024 predictions were here. How did I do.

  1. The three parties of Government will outpoll the three parties of opposition in at least 90% of public polls in 2024. Was around 80% only so 0/1
  2. The 2024 Budget will project a surplus by 2027. Was forecast for 27/28 so 0/1
  3. The new Public Service Commissioner will not be a current public servant. Sir Brian Roche. 1/1
  4. Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination for President. 1/1
  5. At least three Labour List MPs will resign in 2024. Gone are Kevin, Andrew, Grant and Rino. 1/1
  6. Chloe Swarbrick will replace James Shaw as Greens co-leader. 1/1
  7. There will be at least one by-election in 2024. Nope. 1/1
  8. The Spinoff buys Stuff. Might be the other way round. 0/1
  9. Donald Trump is convicted on at least one charge and sentenced to jail time. He was convicted but now won’t be sentenced so 0.5/1
  10. A City Mayor resigns in 2024. A couple should have but haven’t. 1/1
  11. Floating mortgage rates are below 7% by the end of 2024. Not yet – 7.96%. 0/1.
  12. Economic growth in 2024 will be higher than in 2023. 0/1
  13. The minimum wage will be increased by 50 cents. Was 45c so 0.5/1
  14. Joe Biden is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for President. Heh well he was before he wasn’t. 0.5/1
  15. Chris Hipkins will remain Leader of the Labour Party. Yay. 1/1
  16. The Russia-Ukraine war will end. 0/1
  17. The UK Labour Party forms a majority Government. Easy 1/1
  18. A Te Pati Maori MP will be named by the Speaker. Yep 1/1
  19. Donald Trump will be re-elected President in November. Yep 1/1
  20. Two Ministers will take maternity leave. One did 0.5/1

Overall score is 12/20 – possibly my worst year. However some of them were deliberately chosen as long shots or tongue in cheek – see 8, 10 and 20.

I’ll do my 2025 predictions after Christmas.

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