Scoring my 2024 predictions
My 2024 predictions were here. How did I do.
- The three parties of Government will outpoll the three parties of opposition in at least 90% of public polls in 2024. Was around 80% only so 0/1
- The 2024 Budget will project a surplus by 2027. Was forecast for 27/28 so 0/1
- The new Public Service Commissioner will not be a current public servant. Sir Brian Roche. 1/1
- Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination for President. 1/1
- At least three Labour List MPs will resign in 2024. Gone are Kevin, Andrew, Grant and Rino. 1/1
- Chloe Swarbrick will replace James Shaw as Greens co-leader. 1/1
- There will be at least one by-election in 2024. Nope. 1/1
- The Spinoff buys Stuff. Might be the other way round. 0/1
- Donald Trump is convicted on at least one charge and sentenced to jail time. He was convicted but now won’t be sentenced so 0.5/1
- A City Mayor resigns in 2024. A couple should have but haven’t. 1/1
- Floating mortgage rates are below 7% by the end of 2024. Not yet – 7.96%. 0/1.
- Economic growth in 2024 will be higher than in 2023. 0/1
- The minimum wage will be increased by 50 cents. Was 45c so 0.5/1
- Joe Biden is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for President. Heh well he was before he wasn’t. 0.5/1
- Chris Hipkins will remain Leader of the Labour Party. Yay. 1/1
- The Russia-Ukraine war will end. 0/1
- The UK Labour Party forms a majority Government. Easy 1/1
- A Te Pati Maori MP will be named by the Speaker. Yep 1/1
- Donald Trump will be re-elected President in November. Yep 1/1
- Two Ministers will take maternity leave. One did 0.5/1
Overall score is 12/20 – possibly my worst year. However some of them were deliberately chosen as long shots or tongue in cheek – see 8, 10 and 20.
I’ll do my 2025 predictions after Christmas.