Kiwiblog’s 2025 predictions
Here’s my 20 predictions for 2025, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got a low 10/20 right for 2024, a B+ in NCEA 🙂
- National will outpoll Labour in at least 90% of public polls in 2025
- Wayne Brown is re-elected Mayor of Auckland
- Floating mortgage rates are below 6% by the end of 2025
- Carmel Sepuloni will become Leader of the Labour Party
- Pierre Poilievre will be elected PM of Canada, with a majority Government
- If Labour stand a candidate for the Wellington Mayoralty, they will be elected Mayor
- PM Luxon will do a Cabinet reshuffle with at least one Minister dropped out of the Ministry
- The Government drops its bill to force Internet companies to fund media companies
- Two South Island city Mayors are not re-elected
- A Te Pati Maori MP will be referred to the Privileges Committee in 2025
- Unemployment will peak at or before 5.5% in 2025, and then drop
- Trump will get all his remaining Cabinet picks confirmed
- Labor will be re-elected in Australia, but will lose its majority
- Reform will outpoll Labour in at least five polls in the UK in 2025
- The 2025 budget will have less core crown spending for 25/26 than was forecast in the 2024 budget.
- There will be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, lasting at least three months
- There will not be an Ohariu seat after the new boundaries are finalised
- Labour will commit itself to a Capital Gains Tax, if elected
- At least 15 projects will be consented by the end of 2025 under the new Fast Track Approvals Law
- The Treaty Principles Bill will not pass its second reading