Ending Assad’s rule is good, but the replacement may be worse
It looks like the Assad regime which has ruled Syria since 1971 may be about to crumble. The Civil War started 13 years ago but was thought to be at a stalemate, but suddenly two major cities have fallen, and opposition forces are approach Damascus. The fact Iran and Russia have started to evacuate their people is very significant. With Iran extended due to the conflict with Israel through their proxies and Russia extended with their invasion of Ukraine, neither country is able to prop up Assas as strongly as they did a decade ago.
Different parts of the country are held by different military groups and it is far from certain that conflict will stop, if Assad is toppled. Syria could split up, or it could become a failed state, a terrorist haven, or most optimistically a federal state with semi-autonomous regions.
The major armed groups are.
- Syrian Armed Forces. Offical Armed Forces. Backed by Iran, Russia, Hezbollah
- Free Syrian Army. Big-tent grouping led by defectors. Backed by US, UK, Turkey
- Syrian National Army. Backed by Turkey
- Syrian Democratic Forces. Mainly Kurdish. Backed by US, UK. Opposed by Turkey
- Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham. Sunni Islamist. Backed by Turkey. Opposed by US. Associated with Al-Qaeda until 2017. They are the group that has captured two cities.
If you were to score than on a 0 to 10 scale of bad to good, then I’d give them:
- Syrian Armed Forces. 1/10
- Free Syrian Army. 6/10
- Syrian National Army. 3/10
- Syrian Democratic Forces. 7/10
- Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham. 2/10
If Assad falls, that is a big black eye for Putin, Iran and Hezbollah. Syria has been a vital hub for them. So geopolitically his fall is a good thing. But for people living in Syria, it will not be clear for sometime if things will improve for them.