November 6, 2024 12:00pm by David Farrar

US election results

Over 150 million people have voted in the United States at around 200,000 polling places. At this stage no one in the world knows the result. Everyone will find out at the same time how things are looking as the results come in. There is something very equalising about elections. Because it is so decentralised, no President,. Governor or candidate knows the result before anyone else. You have to wait for the teams and teams of election officials, watched by scrutineers, to tally up the votes at each place.

Use this thread to post updates and reactions as results come in.

My vibe based predictions are:

  • Harris wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada for 257 electoral votes and Trump wins Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania for 281 electoral votes
  • The GOP flip 3 Senate seats and take it 52 – 48
  • Democrats flip the House, but having a majority of five or less

I expect (and hope) I am wrong.

UPDATES:

  1. At 2 pm, Trump is up to 67% on the Polymarket betting market
  2. Trump has won Florida, as expected. Harris done worse than expected in Miami-Dade, which suggests Hispanic voters have gone more for Trump
  3. NY Times Needle has Trump slightly favoured to win, ahead in Pennsylvania at 51% probability
  4. NY Times Needle no longer has Harris as favourite to win any of the seven swing states – tied in Wisconsin and Michigan, and trailing in all others
  5. NY Times Needle now has Trump as 66% probable to win.
  6. Polymarket has Trump at 80% to win. Almost all over.
  7. Trump at 89% on Polymarket
  8. NY Times has Trump at 78%, now 83%
  9. NY Times is projecting Trump will win the popular vote
  10. And Trump now deemed “likely” to win by NY Times at 88%

Now all over/ Trump has won the Electoral College, and the GOP has won a majority in the Senate – somewhere from 51 to 56 seats. The House outcome won’t be known for possibly days, but if it follows the other results you’d have to say likely GOP increases its majority.

This would give Republicans control of both chambers and the presidency. I suspect the new Senate will ditch the filibuster, so there could be some significant law changes to come.