Relative vote share changes for Trump
In this post I look at what the absolute and relative change in support for Trump was between 2016 and 2024 with various demographics based on the exit polls. So going from 15% to 30% is a 100% increase in relative support (and a 15% increase in absolute support).
Gender
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| Men | 52% | 55% | 3% | 6% |
| Women | 41% | 45% | 4% | 10% |
So Trump improved slightly more with women in an absolute sense, and quite a lot better in a relative sense. So this wasn’t about Trump attracting more sexist men who didn’t want a woman President.
Age
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| 18 – 24 | 34% | 42% | 8% | 24% |
| 18 – 29 | 36% | 43% | 7% | 19% |
| 18 – 44 | 39% | 46% | 7% | 18% |
| 25 – 29 | 38% | 45% | 7% | 18% |
| 30 – 39 | 39% | 46% | 7% | 18% |
| 30 – 44 | 41% | 48% | 7% | 17% |
| 40 – 49 | 49% | 50% | 1% | 2% |
| 45 – 64 | 52% | 54% | 2% | 4% |
| 45+ | 52% | 52% | 0% | 0% |
| 50 – 64 | 52% | 56% | 4% | 8% |
| 65+ | 52% | 49% | -3% | -6% |
Not quite a youthquake but Trump got 7% more with under 45% and 3% less with over 65s. The very young under 25s had support for him rise by one quarter.
Race
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| White | 57% | 57% | 0% | 0% |
| Blacks | 8% | 13% | 5% | 63% |
| Latino | 28% | 46% | 18% | 64% |
| Asians | 27% | 39% | 12% | 44% |
| Non-white | 21% | 33% | 12% | 57% |
This is stunning. Trump made no gains with white voters but went up 18% with Latino voters, 12% Asians and 5% Blacks. His share of the Latino and Black votes increased by almost two thirds.
He also got 65% of the Native American vote, but no comparative data for that.
Race and Gender
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| White men | 62% | 60% | -2% | -3% |
| White women | 52% | 53% | 1% | 2% |
| Black men | 13% | 21% | 8% | 62% |
| Black women | 4% | 7% | 3% | 75% |
| Latino men | 32% | 55% | 23% | 72% |
| Latino women | 25% | 38% | 13% | 52% |
So Trump went down with the patriarchy (white men) and had his biggest increase with Latino men and Latino women. His relative gains with black men and women are also massive.
Race and Age
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| Whites 18 – 29 | 47% | 49% | 2% | 4% |
| Whites 30 – 44 | 54% | 55% | 1% | 2% |
| Whites 45 – 64 | 62% | 62% | 0% | 0% |
| Whites 65+ | 58% | 55% | -3% | -5% |
| Blacks 18 – 29 | 9% | 15% | 6% | 67% |
| Blacks 30 – 44 | 9% | 15% | 6% | 67% |
| Blacks 45 – 64 | 9% | 15% | 6% | 67% |
| Blacks 65+ | 9% | 5% | -4% | -44% |
| Latinos 18 – 29 | 26% | 47% | 21% | 81% |
| Latinos 30 – 44 | 28% | 45% | 17% | 61% |
| Latinos 45 – 64 | 32% | 49% | 17% | 53% |
| Latinos 65+ | 25% | 41% | 16% | 64% |
With whites, younger whites went slightly towards Trump, and older whites slightly away.
Older black voters went away from Trump but he had a consistent 6% gains from Blacks under 65.
Latinos were more even with their increased support for Trump – ranged from 16% to 21% over all age groups.
Education
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| High school | 51% | 63% | 12% | 24% |
| Some college | 51% | 51% | 0% | 0% |
| College graduate | 44% | 45% | 1% | 2% |
| Postgraduate | 37% | 38% | 1% | 3% |
| All college graduate | 42% | 42% | 0% | 0% |
| Non college graduate | 51% | 56% | 5% | 10% |
Trump had a 12% gain with those who did high school only, and a 5% gain with all non-college graduates. Very little change with college graduates.
Education by race and gender
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| White college | 48% | 45% | -3% | -6% |
| White non-college | 66% | 66% | 0% | 0% |
| Non-white college | 22% | 32% | 10% | 45% |
| Non-white non-college | 20% | 34% | 14% | 70% |
| White college women | 44% | 41% | -3% | -7% |
| White non-college women | 61% | 63% | 2% | 3% |
| White college men | 53% | 50% | -3% | -6% |
| White non-college men | 71% | 69% | -2% | -3% |
Trump’s 2016 victory was put down to white non-college voters. But he did not gain from them in 2024. He stayed at 66%. He dropped 3% with whit college graduates.
Breaking those down by gender he increased 2% with white non-college women and dropped with all other white voters.
It’s the non-white voters where he gained 14% with non-white voters with no degree and 10% with non-white voters with a degree. So working class voters of colour went from 20% to 34% for Trump – a 70% relative increase.
Income
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| Under $30k | 40% | 46% | 6% | 15% |
| Under $50k | 41% | 50% | 9% | 22% |
| Under $100k | 45% | 50% | 5% | 11% |
| $30k to $50k | 41% | 53% | 12% | 29% |
| $50k to $100k | 49% | 51% | 2% | 4% |
| $50k+ | 49% | 48% | -1% | -2% |
| $100k – $200k | 48% | 47% | -1% | -2% |
| $100k+ | 47% | 46% | -1% | -2% |
| $200k – $250k | 47% | 45% | -2% | -4% |
| $250k+ | 46% | 45% | -1% | -2% |
This should worry the Democrats. Trump fell with all income brackets over $100,000 family income but grew with all brackets under $100,000. Up a large 12% with those earning $30k to $50k.
Marital Status
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| Married | 52% | 56% | 4% | 8% |
| Unmarried | 37% | 42% | 5% | 14% |
| Married men | 57% | 60% | 3% | 5% |
| Married women | 47% | 51% | 4% | 9% |
| Unmarried men | 44% | 49% | 5% | 11% |
| Unmarried women | 32% | 38% | 6% | 19% |
Trump gained support with both men and women, married and not married. While unmarried women were his weakest demographic, it was also the one that grew the most – from 32% to 38%.
Religion
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| White evangelical | 80% | 82% | 2% | 2% |
| Non-white enangelical | 34% | 40% | 6% | 18% |
| Protestant | 59% | 63% | 4% | 7% |
| Catholic | 50% | 58% | 8% | 16% |
| Jewish | 23% | 22% | -1% | -4% |
| Other religion | 32% | 34% | 2% | 6% |
| No religion | 25% | 26% | 1% | 4% |
Trump’s biggest increase from 2016 was with Catholics. He fell slightly with Jewish voters.
Area
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| Urban | 34% | 38% | 4% | 12% |
| Suburban | 49% | 51% | 2% | 4% |
| Rural | 61% | 64% | 3% | 5% |
Trump’s support grew the most in the cities, but he of course still did better in rural and suburban areas.
Other Demographics
| Trump support | 2016 | 2024 | Abs change | Rel change |
| Union | 42% | 45% | 3% | 7% |
| Non-union | 48% | 50% | 2% | 4% |
| Veterans | 60% | 65% | 5% | 8% |
| Non-veteran | 44% | 48% | 4% | 9% |
| 1st time voter | 38% | 56% | 18% | 47% |
| LGBT | 14% | 13% | -1% | -7% |
Trump’s support in union households went up 3%. He got 65% of the Veteran vote – up 5%. His share of the LGBT vote was down 1%.
Most importantly he won 56% of first time voters – up 18% from 2016.
So overall what groups did Trump most improve with. They were:
- Young voters
- Latino voters
- Asian voters
- Black male voters
- Those who only did high school
- Voters earning under $50k
- Catholics
- 1st time voters
When you look at that list, none of these scream traditional republican groups. This was one of the more extraordinary realignments in voting support I have seen. What we don’t yet know is whether it is a one time thing, or will continue.