Why I wouldn’t vote for Trump

Nate Silver has a good way of explaining why he will vote for Kamala Harris. Before he looks at anything else, he asks is there anything that is disqualifying about a candidate. His answer is Trump’s support of January 6 disqualifies him, and there is nothing Harris has done that is disqualifying, so he will vote for Harris.

This is basically my approach too. Now let’s be clear what I mean by disqualifying. I don’t mean I don’t like them. I don’t mean I don’t like their policies. It doesn’t mean I don’t like their rhetoric. It is a very low bar to cross. In New Zealand, Australia, Canada, UK and US I can’t think of any other major party leader who would not pass the disqualification bar. And there are many of them who I think had terrible policies and did a pretty terrible job.

I understand why many people support Trump (unlike those who are so lacking in cognitive ability that they can’t understand why people may not support Trump, and call anyone who disagrees with them as Trump Derangement Syndrome people). In fact I blogged 10 good things about Trump in 2020. They were:

1. He will sometimes defy the conventional wisdom
2. Judicial Appointments
3. He tries really hard to keep his promises
4. His instincts are anti-interventionist
5. He is more available to the media than any other modern President
6. He delivered large tax cuts
7. He is reasonably open about his motives
8. He is sceptical of regulations
9. Middle East peace deals
10. He is a cultural warrior against the woke cancel culture

If you are talking policies alone, of course I would prefer Trump’s policies (not all of them – terrible on trade and security) to Harris’. But I only get to policies if a candidate passes the low bar such as actually supporting democracy and the rule of law.

I also blogged the 10 worst things about him.

1. He suffers from narcissistic personality order
2. Record deficits and debt
3. Trump is a pathological liar
4. Trump is a protectionist
5. Trump is incompetent
6. Trump doesn’t read
7. His own appointees know he is a bad President
8. Trump is cruel
9. Trump is vindictive
10. Trump is a danger to the rule of law

Now not all of the above are disqualifying. Every US President is somewhat protectionist and most have run up huge deficits its and debt.

I want to focus on the four things that I believe are disqualifying. Any one of them would be.

1 Trump does not believe in democracy

Trump has made very clear by actions and words he does not believe in democracy. He tried to subvert the clear results of the last election through threats and violence. His heroes are all autocrats, not democrats.

For those who don’t agree with me, I pose this challenge. Is there any scenario in which Harris is certified by the states (after legal challenges have been heard) as having won a majority of electoral college votes, that Trump concedes the election? We all know he won’t, no matter the actual results. He is incapable of doing so. The only election outcome he can accept is one in which he wins.

If you disagree with me, why not put your money where your mouth it? How about a NZ$1,000 bet where you pay me if Harris is sworn in as President and Trump has refused to concede the election, and I pay you if Harris is sworn in and Trump does concede the election after legal challenges have been exhausted, once the Electoral College has voted?

I’ll even go better than 1:1 odds. Even 1:1 odds are ridiculously favourable for a normal person. The chance of Luxon not conceding the next NZ election if the CL parties get a majority of seats is basically 0%. Same for whomever the Labour Leader is. Same for Harris in the US, Albanese in Australia, Trudeau in Canada. If someone offered me a bet where I pay $20,000 if Luxon doesn’t concede and I get $1,000 if Luxon does concede, I’d take that.

So 1:1 odds implies a 50% chance Trump as loser would concede. I’d even go 5:1 which means I think there is a greater than 90% chance Trump won’t concede. If you are not willing to make that bet, then you basically agree with me that Trump will never concede, regardless of actual results.

2) Trump does not believe in the rule of law

Trump has said numerous time he does not believe the Attorney-General should make decisions based on the law and the facts. He has said he wants an AG who will follow his instructions and prosecute people he asks them to prosecute. He has sacked AGs because they put the law ahead of his wishes.

The rule of law and democracy stand at the heart of good government. Any candidate who doesn’t believe in either, let alone works against them is disqualified in my opinion. No amount of tax cuts can make up for that.

It is not a counter to Trump saying he will prosecute his enemies to point to the fact Trump has been prosecuted while Biden was in office. While you can have legitimate concerns about the politicisation of the US justice system, that is not the same as having a President who says he will sack law enforcement officials who don’t do his bidding. I also point out the Justice Department has prosecuted Biden’s son, a Democratic Senator and the Democratic Mayor of NY.

3) Trump is psychologically dangerous

Trump’s mixture of dementing, narcissism, vindictiveness and lack of self control is a toxic mixture. It makes him super easy to manipulate – just praise him and agree with him. He sacks people who put truth over his narcissism.

4) Trump is a pathological liar

All humans, and especially politicians, lie to some degree. But Trump is incapable of distinguishing reality and fantasy. Anything that doesn’t fit into his self-belief, he lies about.

Here’s a recent example

With teleprompters visible on both sides of him, as they are almost every speech, Trump says he doesn’t use teleprompters. https://t.co/osiqNo62GB

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 12, 2024

He doesn’t just lie about things which are contestable. but over things like his inauguration crowd size. A President who puts his feelings over the facts, is not someone I can trust in office. Trump doesn’t understand the difference between reality and fantasy.

If Trump believed in democracy, the rule of law, lived in reality and wasn’t narcissistic – then I would not view him as disqualified and would prefer him to Harris, or any Democrat. But he is incredibly flawed. Dismissing his actions against democracy as a few mean tweets is a recipe for disaster.

Finally I have noted a few Trump supporters dismiss anyone who disagrees with them as captured by the MSM. I find this incredibly arrogant. Basically you are saying that only you have the intellect to not be captured. I subscribe to almost a dozen RW commentators (most who are voting for Trump). I listen to Ben Shapiro every day. I read numerous RW US blogs. I also am friends with and talk to people actually involved in Republican politics at federal and state level. But sure, delude yourself that you with your Facebook group are the sole arbiter of truth, and I just get all my news from CNN.