US presidential election forecast E-15

Trump is now favoured to win by four of the six prediction sites. It remains a remarkably close race with none of the seven swing states having a lead of more than 2%. As the average polling error in US presidential elections is 4%, it will come down to who does better than their polls. As Trump has done so in both 2016 and 2020, the smart money would be on him at this stage.

All six sites have Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina giving him 262 election votes. He needs 270 to win. In Pennsylvania he leads in three, his behind in two and tied with one. Again the decision of Harris not to pick Josh Shapiro may be critical. A win there gives him 281.

If he wins Nevada (ahead in two, tied in one, behind in three) that gives him 268 EVs and Harris 270.

Three days ago the average had Harris 276 and Trump 262. Now it is Trump 281 and Harris 257.