One fewer electorate seat for the first time
The number of electorate seats will drop from 72 to 71 – the first ever drop under MMP. This is because the north island population did not grow as fast as the south island population. There are 16 SI seats, so the NI ones vary. The number of electorates has been:
- 1996: 65
- 1997: 67
- 2002: 69
- 2007: 70
- 2014: 71
- 2019: 72
- 2024: 71
The Boundaries Commission will set boundaries and work out which seat disappears. The largest drops in electoral population since 2020 are:
- Mt Albert -3184
- Mt Roskill -3160
- Wellington Central -1697
- Rongotai -1614
- Auckland Central -618
- Epsom -298
- Pakuranga -87
So I’d say the most likely change is one fewer electorate in central Auckland.
These are the electorates that are over or under quota. Over 5% means they need to shrink and under 5% means they need to expand.
- Selwyn +14.0%
- Mt Albert -12.8%
- Epsom -12.4%
- Rongotai -12.3%
- Maungakiekie -12.2%
- Auckland Central -10.8%
- Pakuranga -10.7%
- Tamaki -10.4%
- Wellington Central -10.4%
- Palmerston North -10.3%
- Kelston -8.0%
- Ohariu -7.6%
- Rotorua -7.6%
- Mt Roskill -7.5%
- North Shore -6.5%
- Northcote -6.5%
- Napier -6.0%
- Ikaroa-Rawhiti -5.5%
- Invercargill -5.3%
- Mangere -5.2%
- Papakura +6.2%
- Whangaparāoa +6.4%
- Northland +7.0%
- Upper Harbour +7.8%
- Bay of Plenty +8.2%
- Kaipara ki Mahurangi +14.7%
- Takanini +17.7%
So what are the likely areas of change. We’ll start from the bottom:
- Southland: Invercargill to grow and and take area from Southland
- Selwyn to lose area to Ilam, Wigram, Banks Peninsula and Rangitata. Some flow on possible.
- Rest of South Island could stay the same
- Wellington: Rongotai to take territory from Wellington Central – possibly Brooklyn and/or Oriental Bay. Wgtn Central will then need to take a lot from Ohariu – Wadestown, Crofton Downs and maybe even Ngaio/Khandallah. Ohariu in turn will have to take in Linden and either move into Porirua, or some of the Western Hills from Hutt South.
- Palmerston North will grow in size and Bay of Plenty shrink in size.
- In Auckland looks very likely you lose an electorate around central to eastern Auckland. Takanini needs to shrink, as does Papakura so boundaries there may move south a bit.
- Up north Northland needs to shrink so boundaries may move north a bit including Northcote and North Shore which need to grow.