How AP calls elections

In New Zealand we have only one election on election day, and the Electoral Commission releases results in real time. The media do provide commentary on how the parties are doing, but most people can work out who has won for themselves.

In the US it is very different. There is no central count for the US election. Each state does its own count. And sometimes they are delegated down to county level also. Also you have almost 500 races for Congress plus thousands of other races.

The Associated Press is the main media outlet that monitors all the vote counts, and projects winners. They don’t determine the winner, but their projections are widely reported.

There is an interesting article on Stuff about how they do this. Some key facts:

• Have been calling races for 175 years
• 6,823 races this year to be called
• 5,000 staff will work on the election results
• 99.9% accuracy rate
• They call a race when they determine/believe the trailing candidate can’t overtake the lead of the leading candidate
• 4,000 staff at vote counts. 800 vote entry clerks who check data
• 60 staff on decision team, experienced in election law
• For a call on which presidential candidate wins a state, a race caller and a statewide analyst have to agree the trailing candidate can’t win, and they take it to a decision editor. All there must agree for the call to proceed
• If a state will put a candidate over 270, or close to it, the decision also has to be endorsed by the executive editor, the VP and head of news, and the Washington bureau chief

Fascinating to see what their process is. I suspect the key states will not be called for a couple of days, as they will be so close.