A tactical blunder

A big upset in voting for the UK Conservative leadership. James Cleverly who won the second to last round of MP voting, got knocked out in the final round, and won’t proceed to the members vote.

Here’s how each round has gone:

Round 1

1. Robert Jenrick 28
2. Kemi Badenoch 22
3. James Cleverly 21
4. Tom Tugendhat 17
5. Mel Stride 16
6. Priti Patel 14

Round 2

1. Robert Jenrick 33 (+5)
2. Kemi Badenoch 28 (+6)
3. James Cleverly 21
4. Tom Tugendhat 21 (+4)
5. Mel Stride 16

This is as expected. Patel’s votes go to three different candidates.

Round 3

1. James Cleverly 39 (+18)
2. Robert Jenrick 31 (-2)
3. Kemi Badenoch 30 (+2)
4. Tom Tugendhat 20 (-1)

Here we probably see some tactical voting. Cleverly went up a massive 18 and Jenrick dropped. That suggests Jenrick voters tactically backed Cleverly to keep him in the race, hoping that they could push Badenoch to third place and eliminate her next round. She is favourite with the members and likely to win if she makes final two.

Round 4

1. Kemi Badenoch 42 (+12)
2. Robert Jenrick 41 (+10)
3. James Cleverly 37 (-2)

Where this is so surprising is Tugendhat is a centrist candidate like Cleverly. Everyone expected most of his votes to go to Cleverly, not the more right candidates of Badenoch and Jenrick. So one theory is Cleverly supporters thought they would tactically vote for Jenrick to knock Badenoch out, but too many of them did so, and they knocked themselves out.

The latest poll of Conservative members has Badenoch beating Jenrick 53%to 33%, so she is the frontrunner. Voting starts tomorrow and closes on 31 October with a result on 3 November (NZDT).