Why did Hipkins favourability take a dip?

There’s been quite a lot of attention on the September 2024 Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll that showed a significant dip for Chris Hipkins as Preferred PM, and with his favourability.

Now it is only one month and one poll, and my advice is to always look at the average of all the polls, and the trend over many months.

Individual polls can bounce around due to sampling probability or sampling error. So I thought I would have a look at the cross-tabs of the poll to see if they explain why Hipkins dropped. Maybe it was just a sample with fewer Labour voters in it?

Well I dive into the details on Patreon (paywalled) but the short answer is Labour voters are the reason Hipkins dipped. Not that there were too few of them, but that they were less favourable towards him.