Guest Post: State of the Race late July 2024
A guest post by John Stringer:
In three earlier posts explaining the US presidential election process to readers not that familiar with how it works, it was said the ‘lawfare’ results v Trump, and the debates still to come, could change everything. No one could have predicted the outcome of that first – and last – debate Trump v Biden. It changed everything.
Trump has been consistently high in the polls since March, and growing his leads. That evolving lead was clearly the motivation for Obama and co. (The Democratic ‘Elite’ as they are called: Obamas, Clintons, Schumer, Pelosi, et al) to force Joe out (which is obviously what this was, a ‘Chicago-style’ palace coup). Assuming Kamala Harris is the Dem. contender, perhaps the most un-democratically elected nominee ever (she was LAST among the earlier presidential Democratic party nominees at 4.6%) what are the polls saying now on a Trump v Harris race?
It’s difficult to gather any real data of measurable significance (one has to grasp at single short-term polls in the wake of events); Harris is in a honeymoon period with a fawning media; and being a ‘change election’ this change from Biden to Harris (man to woman; age to ‘youth’; White to Black) has excited the Left base. But there are some critical results that indicate where the race is at.
• ECONOMY (where this election will be won/lost) Trump has a 51% favour rating. Harris only 41%. That’s a ten point lead, and in such a close race, that’s probably unassailable. It’s how most Americans will decide their vote.
• OVERALL FAVOURABILITY RATING (doesn’t decide who wins the Presidency). NY Times is reporting an average of various polls: Trump 48%, Harris 46% (compared to Trump 49%, Biden 41% early July). That justifies the coup.
• OVERALL ACROSS 5 BATTLEGROUND STATES one poll has favourability at Trump 44%, Harris 41%.
• ARIZONA: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
• GEORGIA: Trump 48%, Harris 44%
• MICHIGAN: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
• PENNSYV: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
• WISCONSIN: Tied 47%
What this means is that Harris has to cut into Trump’s leads in ALL the battleground states. That’s an uphill battle. She is also untested, and Trump is a very good campaigner, whereas she has not won many races at all, in fact she did not poll well in her own Democratic primary among supporters ostensibly on her side. They didn’t like her then. Obama has been slow to endorse, and at time of writing hasn’t done so.
She is still No.2 in the Biden White House, so has Biden’s failures like albatrosses around her neck, she still his VP!! Baggage. She can’t now try and instance herself from this Administration failures and they are many. She will live or die on Joe’s record, and its not pretty.
She is extremely vulnerable on a key election issue, BORDER and IMMIGRATION. Trump will hammer her on this (Harris was the so-called ‘Border Czar’) and she’ll suffer some king hits there, which further hurts her ability to eat in to Trump’s battleground state leads. Narrowing the lead or winning one or two states (like Wisconsin) means Trump will be President.
Newsweek have just published 24 July, a YouGuv poll reporting Trump +15 points ahead of Harris on immigration and the border.https://www.newsweek.com/trump-harris-immigration-poll-compared-1928887
or herehttps://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50144-harris-vs-trump-americans-evaluate-personality-and-policy
A certain victory as was inevitable under a Trump v Biden matchup is not now certain, due to this political ‘switcheroo.’ And we have to allow space for Harris to perform well against Trump in their debate/debates which could shift the dial.
If there is a pre-November ceasefire in Gaza and hostages get returned on the Biden watch, Harris might get some brownie points for that. But I would expect Trump’s NY Street savvy, working with Netanyahu, to steal that glory. Don’t put it past Trump to secretly go to Jerusalem and broker a deal (Trump loves deals) in exchange for promises to Netanyahu for American backing in later conflicts (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and against Iran). Netanyahu prefers Trump and is more likely to toss any electoral crumbs his way rather than Biden/Harris. Did you see the body language Netanyahu/Harris after their meeting 26 July?
If this is the best poll ‘bump’ Harris can muster then she’s done. But there’s still the debates, the DNC convention, attack ads, and international crises to factor in. In politics anything can happen. But at this stage, the race is Trump’s to lose, and Harris has only 4 months to erode Trump’s consistent lead over the last year or so (and she’s still not technically even the Candidate)..
Summary Trump v Harris Race, late July 2024.
- 51-41% Favourability on the economy (Trump)
- 48-46% Overal Favourability (Trump)
- 44-41% Favourability across 5 Battleground states (Trump)
- 49-44% ARIZONA (Trump)
- 48-44% GEORGIA (Trump)
- 46-45% MICHIGAN (Trump)
- 48-46% PENNSYV (Trump)
- 47-47% WISCONSIN (Trump/Harris).