Reform in the UK
A reader writes:
Important video, I believe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKcErPWhtMA with 3 key elements and possible angles for Kiwiblog. I couldn’t think of anyone else better to cover this stuff.
- Nigel Farage/Reform is a political phenom
As you know, the latest polls suggest they have overtaken Conservatives on 19-20% into 2ndplace. It’s not inconceivable that Reform could get to 25%, or more, by election day. I believe this could be the prototype for how to take political duopolies down everywhere. - FPP vs MMP
Despite that support, the talk is that Farage/Reform might only get 1-5 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons! The UK is one of the few remaining First Past the Post systems in the west due to this representation flaw. That said, MMP is far from perfect either, e.g. Winston putting Jacinda in ahead of National. Race-based seats make our system even worse. Our 5% threshold is arbitrary and highly contested, too. Then, we have the French snap election always just a week or so away with representation done via a two-round system. This would also make a great and timely story. - Representative media coverage
At 1.30 in that video is a key point. UK broadcasting, especially state-owned, allocates coverage mostly on the previous election results, not current polling. I believe it is deeply flawed. As Nigel says, they’re polling 19% but getting 8% of the media coverage. They’re polling 3x higher than the Greens, but getting the same media coverage. I believe media coverage should be based primarily on current polling popularity. Win the people = win more coverage. Lose the people = get less coverage.
