Biden going going …

This shows the Predictit price for Biden being the Democrat nominee. It is now down to 24c which means a 24% probability only.

Just a month ago he was at almost 90%. Then the debate on 27 June saw him drop to 61%. Speculation he may withdraw saw him drop top around 40%

His 11 July press conference and the assassination attempt on Trump saw his chances rise to 70%. But then a combination of senior Democrats urging him out and Biden getting Covid has seen it drop to 24%.

This one shows the odds of him being re-elected President in red. He was just behind Trump at 45%, declined to 30% and today is at just 12%. So the betting markets give him not even a 1 in 8 chance of winning.

I will be amazed if Biden doesn’t withdraw as the candidate in the next few days. What I think is up in the air is three things.

• Will Biden resign as candidate only or also as President. If he does the letter then Kamala Harris won’t have to fight for the nomination and gets the advantage of incumbency
• If Biden remains President, will there be a contested vote at the convention, or will they try to coronate Harris on the basis she is already on the ticket. Will Biden explicitly endorse her?
• Who will be the VP candidate?