What if Winston had picked National in 2017?

Henry Cooke has a fun piece looking at what may have happened if Winston had picked National in 2017. I agree with most of it, as logically argued.

Cooke says that National would have got a 5th term in 2020, but lost in 2023. Both are probable. However I do wonder if an English/Joyce Government would have let monetary policy get as loose, and the cost of living crisis in 2022/23 may have been lessened. But hard to imagine a sixth term unless Labour had totally self destructed.