Guest Post: Who will win President

A guest post by John Stringer:

With the respective camps’ announcement Biden and Trump WILL debate one another, the race for the 60th quadrennial Presidential election is on. (It’s Nov 5; NZ 6th). More to come on the detail, but I thought readers might enjoy this snap shot of the race as at mid-May 2024.

This graphic shows the average of all polls in America state-by-state for President (US “Election Time/538” who track this data pretty regularly and conservatively). On all projections, Trump is predicted to win. The trend is also interesting. Biden’s historic State leads are in several cases down by 3x, not 3 pts, but as much as 3 times! Trump’s leads are also up across the trend almost everywhere (ie he leads now by more than he did in 2016). Some states are flipping. Hawaii is close to going Republican. Florida is now solid Republican. Wisconsin is also trending Red (Republican). 

It is worth noting, Trump is in court and his campaigning is restricted; Biden has incumbency, but Trump is still caning Biden in the polls. Once Trump hits the road and the rallies, and we have the debates, it’s likely the polls will start shifting. These results are all conservative and are poll results (ie if this poll data was Election Day in Nov) not predictive or projecting. Put another way, if the election were today, Trump wins 315/223 College votes. You need 270 to win.

~Stringer preceded DPF as a parliamentary staffer (Beehive press secretary) and political party professional (Nats) and has served on political boards. He has been involved in campaigns in NZ and the UK and was himself a parliamentary candidate.