Who will come second in Iowa

There is little doubt that Trump will win the GOP Iowa caucuses. He has been polling at 52% with Haley and DeSantis both on 17%.

What will be of interest is who comes second, and also who does better or worse than expectations.

If Trump gets over 50%, he looks unbeatable. Under 50%, and slightly vulnerable.

Haley is 0.4% behind DeSantis. He has invested heavily on his group game in Iowa, but she has momentum. Either could come second. What they need is to do not just be second, but get at least 20% so they look like they could possibly consolidate the anti-Trump vote to become competitive.

The voting takes place on 15 January, which will be 16 January in NZ.