Scoring my 2023 predictions
I blogged these predictions in December 2022.
- National will win more party votes and seats than Labour at the general election. Easy 1/1
- ACT will win more party votes than the Greens at the general election, unless chloe swarbrick becomes a co-leader. Wrong 0/1
- There will be a National-led government. Right 1/1
- NZ First will make 5%, but will not hold the balance of power. They did make 5% but also held balance of power so 0.5/1
- By the end of 2023 (after six years) the Government will not have achieved even 6% of its ten year targets for houses or trees. Obviously they failed so I got 1/1
- Ron DeSantis will announce he is standing for President of the United States. He did, but doing very badly 1/1
- Joe Biden will announce he is seeking re-election. He is, fort now anyway. 1/1
- The Government will not pass its compulsory income insurance into law before the election. Thankfully 1/1
- National will win at least 10 electorates off Labour. Off memory they won 15 or so 1/1
- Construction will not have begun in light rail in auckland. LOL easy 1/1
- One or more major banks will have floating mortgage rates of 8% or higher in 2023. BNZ at least is 8.69% 1/1
- NZ will avoid a recession by having only one quarter of negative growth in 2023. I give myself 0.5/1. We had -0.2% in March, +0.5% in June and -0.3% in September. More Han one quarter of negative growth but not consecutive in 2023, so not a recession (unless you include the Dec 22 quarter which was also negative)
- Labour will deliver small tax cuts to the lowest rate or bracket in the Budget. Nope they gave nothing 0/1
- At least two more Ministers will announce they are retiring at the election.We lost four! 1/1
- The Maori Party will win at least two of the seven maori seats. They won 6 so 1/1
- At least one Labour minister who holds an electorate will go list only. Grant Robertson did 1/1
- Gerry Brownlee will become the 32nd speaker of the House. He did 1/1
- Fighting will continue in Ukraine throughout 2023. Sadly 1/1
- The general election will be in November 2023. Out by a month 0/1
- Stuff will introduce a paywall. They did 1/1
Overall score is 16/20. I need to do more edgy ones for 2024, which I’ll publish in a few days.