Why Hipkins will stay and then go

Stuff reports:

Camp Chippy is feeling confidently chipper that their guy has the numbers to retain the leadership of the Labour Party and there’s a desire to call for a vote to cement Chris Hipkins’ dominance as soon as reasonably possible. …

Some in the caucus are grumbling, angry with Hipkins for prioritising centrist ‘bread and butter’ policies at the expense of Labour Party ‘bread and butter’ ideology. 

But talk of David Parker moving against Hipkins isn’t being treated as a particularly serious threat by those in camp Chippy.

I think there is at least a 95% chance Hipkins will be re-elected Leader in a few weeks. But I also think there is almost as great a chance he won’t be leader by the next election.

Hipkins will be an effective Opposition Leader, but Opposition Leaders who are relentlessly negative often become quite unpopular – as happened with Goff, Cunliffe and Little. Hipkins default mode is to attack. He will do well at putting pressure on a new Government, but I suspect he will become too unpopular with the public and Labour will then replace him probably in 2025.