Guest Post: Plato – Alive and Well?

A guest post by Owen Jennings:

According to Plato, a “noble lie” is a myth or an untruth, often connected to religion, knowingly propagated by the elite to advance an agenda.  Plato determined that the noble lie is not merely a fabrication but rather a carefully constructed myth that serves as a unifying force in society.

Wouldn’t Plato have a ball today if he was around?  All his stated ingredients are in place.  We have an “elite”, a “myth”, a green religion, an “agenda” and, of course the resulting propagation of the lie.

Our farmers around the country are painfully aware of at least one “noble lie”.  Plato would draw big crowds in the Hokonui Hall or the Eketahuna Saleyards if he was promoting his noble lie theory, today. They would all be keen to update him on the modern noble lie keeping them awake at night.

The farmers would quickly show Plato websites like the Ministry for the Environment, statements from the Climate Change Commission, Government policy, even claims by the main political parties and their leaders that say, “farmers are responsible for nearly half our greenhouse gas emissions”.  

That’s our noble lie.  We have our elite, some who fly to exotic places in private jets to tell us to eliminate our emissions, others, more locally, faceless Wellington mandarins, out-of-touch academics, Māori with new found influence, politicians with their finger in the wind and the odd commentator who enjoys getting their feathers preened.  It’s a lie because the claim has been made redundant by more recent science.

Research by Oxford University scientists showed that when ruminant methane emissions are stable or falling as they are in New Zealand, then the warming potential of methane is reduced massively – 300% to 400%.  Even the “we-hate-being-wrong” IPCC agreed and said, in its AR6 report, page 1016 of Chapter 7, “…expressing methane emissions as CO2 equivalent of 28, overstates the effect on global surface temperature by a factor of 300% – 400%″. That’s not fringe differences at the margins – its unbelievably significant.  On its own, it potentially saves farmers tens of thousands of dollars.

It’s a lie because there is even more recent robust science, unrefuted and unfalsified. It is backed up by satellite data – a first when most computer modelling on temperatures grossly exceeds reality. It concludes that methane is heavily out-absorbed by water vapour and can only absorb in two minor and weak frequencies on the electromagnetic spectrum. More than 300,000 transitions have been researched and the research showed clearly that present warming is limited and even if methane levels were doubled the impact on temperature would be barely discernible.  It could not be taxed due to its minute nature.

Fortunately, the farming industry groups – Beef and Lamb, DairyNZ and Federated Farmers have come out of the hazy stupor called HWEN where they spent months chasing minutia and irrelevant factors to suddenly discover it’s all about science and having a sound researched base to anchor any policy judgements.  All they need to do now is focus on current science.  They need reminding science evolves. 

To cap it off, all the “official” participants in the “lets-tax-methane” camp are shutting their eyes to the requirements of the Paris Agreement that stated very clearly that no mitigation measure should be taken that threatened food production.  The same officials said 20% of the sheep and beef industry and 5% of our dairy sector would be decimated. They don’t seem to be able to figure out that our lost production will be picked up by another country with a much larger footprint making a sad mockery of taxing our farmers.

One thing Plato missed in his hypothetical city, his theory on noble lies – incentives, especially financial rewards.  The Government is pouring nearly a billion dollars of hard-earned taxpayer’s money into “fixing the methane emissions problem”.  The usual band of troughers are lined up.  There is money to be made from finding a way to repeat the noble lie; write reports on it, research it, promise new solutions, hold seminars and hui, korero on it, anything to keep the lie alive and propagated.

Yes, Plato will feel well justified.

If you think our farming community should be spared a ‘noble lie’ go to https://methane-accord.co.nz and join up so with the help of the rural and urban communities, we can exact some urgently needed justice.

Owen Jennings on behalf of the Methane Science Accord.