A strong mandate for change

With 100% of places reporting (but specials still to come) there is a strong mandate for change. The three parties campaigning to change the Government got over 54% of the vote and the three pro-Government parties got 40%. In terms of seats it is 69 to 52. So the CR has gained 26 seats and the CL has lost 25 seats.

National will be very pleased with their result, which is higher than expectations. They have also routed Labour in electorates they never thought they would win like Mt Roskill. This is important. Labour hold just 17 of 72 electorates. Electorates give you profile and credibility in the community. In the North Island, Labour only hold Palmerston North and a bit of South and West Auckland, plus of course Wellington. I n the South Island they only hold Christchurch and Dunedin seats.

Christopher Luxon has become Prime Minister as a first term MP. This is an extraordinary achievement. The leadership and campaign teams of Christoper, Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Jo de Joux and Cameron Burrows did an amazing job, especially considering the most negative campaign we’ve ever seen by an incumbent Government, supported by numerous third parties groups such as the CTU. Their scare campaign failed.

Labour deserved to lose. Not because there are bad people in Labour. I’m sad at some of the talented Labour MPs and candidates who have lost, for they are good people. But Labour deserved to lose on the simple basis of incompetence. They failed to deliver on numerous iconic promises, and managed to increase taxation and spending by $60 billion a year yet produce worse outcomes across the board in health and education. While Bill English managed to produce zero spending increase budgets which saw improved outcomes in health and education. Labour’s first and worst mistake was abandoning the Better Public Services targets in 2017.

While ACT’s result was in line with recent polling, they will be disappointed they didn’t get a higher vote. However the twin in Tamaki for them is a real morale boost, and also tactically significant. If I was a National MP in an Auckland dark blue seat, I’d be making sure I’m very focused on my electorate, because the logical thing for ACT to do is to now try and win a 3rd Auckland electorate in 2023.

The Greens got a good result compared to 2020, but lower than they were polling (as I expected). Their win in Wellington Central was stunning, as is their likely win in Rongotai. This sets them up well, and Labour may face having lost younger progressive voters to the Greens.

NZ First got a good result, in line with the polls. Winston has got NZ First back into Parliament again, and they will have a significant role in Parliament, and quite possibly Government. While there will be challenges in working with NZ First, there are also opportunities – having three centre-right parties to balance the three centre-left parties.

Te Pāti Māori had a great night. Still unclear how many electorates they will end up with. Currently four but could be three or six. But a huge blow for Labour in these electorates.

We have just elected our 54th Parliament. The incumbent Prime Minister conceded within hours of the polls closing, and we yet again have a peaceful transfer of power – something that once we took for granted, but is becoming less common overseas.

Thoughts goes to losing MPs, candidates and supporters. The vast majority are involved because of a genuine desire to improve New Zealand. We can disagree on policies, but respect motivations. Also thoughts are with the many parliamentary staff who will not know if they have a job for several weeks.

I’ll be posting more today and tomorrow on potential Government options, and the likely makeup of Parliament.

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