Guest Post: Seats Analysis

A reader writes in:

Labour vs National top 20 in electorate seats

1.  Remutaka (Hipkins),   Botany (Luxon)
2.  Te Tai Tokerau (Davis),  Ohariu (Willis)
3. Kelston (Sepuloni),  Hutt South (Bishop)
4. Wigram (Woods),  Whangarei (Reti)
5.  Tauranga (Tinetti),  Epsom (Goldsmith)
6. Northland (Prime), Taupo ( Upston)
7. West Coast-Tasman (O’Connor), East Coast Bays (Stanford)
8. Tamaki Makaurau (Henare), Waimakariri (Doocey)
9.  Maungakiekie (Radhakrishnan), Pakuranga (Brown)
10.  Wairarapa (McAnulty),  Papakura (Collins)
11.  Hutt South (Andersen), Whangaparaoa (Mitchell)
12. Mana (Edmonds),  Rotorua (McClay)
13.  Rangitata (Luxton),  Mt Albert (Lee)
14. Christchurch Central (Webb),  Port Waikato (Bayly)
15.  Hauraki-Waikato (Mahuta*),  Invercargill (Simmonds)
16.  Te Tai Tonga (Tirikatene),  North Shore (Watts)
17.  New Lynn (Russell),  Kaipara ki Mahurangi (Penk)
18.  Dunedin (Brooking),  Selwyn (Grigg)
19.  Panmure-Otahuhu (Salesa),  Rangitikei (Redmayne)
20.  Palmerston North (Utikere), Napier (Nimon)

*presumed top 20

When the Labour and National lists came out I was very intrigued by the electorate spread the two parties had across their top 20 list positions who are running for electorate ( a vaguely decent proxy for ideal Cabinet positions, ignoring list only MPs). 
As you can see, in only 1 seat – Hutt South – do 2 prospective Cabinet Ministers face off. In all other 19 spots, there is no face off between a National and a Labour heavyweight. This even holds true if you include the electorates where “Cabinet Minister/ Speaker” list only MPs standing down this election have held sway – Wellington Central (Robertson), Te Tai Hauauru (Rurawhe) – even Ilam (Brownlee) if you want to go that far. You have to go down to number 26 on the list Belich (Epsom) to find the next “heavyweight” duel.

There are a number of probable explanatory factors in play – Labour’s reliance on the Māori seats, where National has little credit in the bank, Labour’s high number of list only places in their top 20. the loss of so many National electorate seats at the last election- but the level of different focus is striking, and I wonder to what degree it differs from previous elections. It seems strange to me that there are not more common battleground prestige seats, such as the Central seats, in Wellington, Auckland, Christchurch ( of which only Christchurch makes this list at all!), or major provincial city seats Hamilton, Tauranga, Dunedin – looking at you. Is this just a highly unusual convergence of factors, or are we seeing a strong split of the major parties in the seats that they consider most important?

This leads me to my second analysis – geographic spread of these “Cabinet Minister” seats between the two parties. Once again we see some striking differences. For this analysis’ sake let’s throw back in those list only presumptive Cabinet Ministers who are only stepping out of electorate races this election, so have a clear geographic tie to a seat still.  So Wellington Central, Te Tai Hauauru and Ilam in for Palmerston North, Panmure-Otahuhu and Napier (acknowledging that the 3 we’re removing are highly unlikely to feature in any immediate Cabinet post-election, while those coming back in are presumptively cabinet ministers or Speaker). This gives us:

Labour 
5 Maori seats  (Te Tai Tokerau, Tamaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauauru, Hauraki-Waikato, Te Tai Tonga)
5 Wellington-ish seats (Wellington Central, Mana, Hutt South, Remutaka, Wairarapa)

5 South Island seats – 2 Christchurch (Christchurch Central, Wigram, Dunedin, Rangitata, West-Coast Tasman)
2 other North Island seats (Northland, Tauranga)

3  Auckland seats (Kelston, Maungakiekie, New Lynn)

National

0 Māori seats

2 Wellington-ish seats (Ohariu, Hutt South)

4 South Island seats – 3 Christchurch (Ilam, Waimakariri, Selwyn, Invercargill)

5 other North Island seats (Whangarei, Taupo, Rotorua, Port Waikato, Rangitikei)

9! Auckland seats  (Botany, Epsom, East Coast Bays, Pakuranga, Papakura, Whangaparaoa, Mt Albert, North Shore, Kaipara ki Mahurangi)

Even with some appropriate caveats -prominent list only MPs for Labour in Auckland (Jackson, Parker), the Māori seats being a major point of difference- the differences are stark. Labour places much more than population focus on Wellington and on the Maori seats, and much much less than population on Auckland. National is majorly overrepresented in Auckland, and surprisingly less in the South Island and rural electorates than stereotypes might have made us suspect. Does this reflect electoral strategy? A possible attempt at harnessing an anti-COVID Auckland backlash? Is it all simply random, just a product of where the parties’ most competent MPs just happen to be based? Happy to let you be the judge, but interested to hear your thoughts.