National’s 2023 List

National has released its 2023 List, which is below.

To work out who may get in, we need to make assumptions over which seats National wins. These are not prediction, just an explicit assumption. National won 23 seats in 2020. They also won Hamilton West. There are 12 seats they were less than 4,500 votes behind Labour – Northland, Whangarei, Maungakiekie, Tukituki, Upper Harbour, Northcote, New Plymouth, Hamilton East, Otaki, Ilam, Hutt South and Rangitata. If they win all of those that is 36 electorate seats.

The last three polls all have National at 35%. The number of seats will depend on the wasted vote but let’s say that gets them 46 seats. so who would come in on the list:

1. Nicola Willis
2. Paul Goldsmith
3. Melissa Lee
4. Gerry Brownlee
5. Nancy Lu
6. Katie Nimon
7. Agnes Loheni
8. Maureen Pugh
9. Emma Chatterton
10. James Christmas

Every 0.8% they get over 35% they get another MP.