Yes for the Voice slips further behind

The Australian reports:

The referendum for an Indigenous voice to parliament has suffered a collapse in support among women voters and in the regions as the referendum heads toward defeat, with just 41 per cent of voters now saying they will vote yes.

For the first time, women are now more likely than men to vote no, a central change to core support based on gender.

The No vote in the regions has also blown out to 62 per cent, confirming a widening demographic split between city and bush.

Newspoll have been doing regular polling on the referendum and the trend is stark.

• Feb: +19%
• Mar: +15%
• Apr: +14%
• May: +3%
• Jun: -4%
• Jul: -7%

If it were not for New Zealand, I believe the referendum would pass easily. On the face of it, the question appears laudable and benign:

To alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice

Who could be against a voice for indigenous Australians?

But many Australians will have seen what is happening in New Zealand. In 1998, one regional council was given permission to have a Maori ward. Today in 2023, a Government advisory board has recommended that every local authority must have unelected Councillors appointed by Iwi and Hapu. One already does, and the Government tried to undermine equality of suffrage in Rotorua.

It is not unreasonable for Australians to suspect the Voice would eventually end up with powers where the Government must act on their advice unless say a majority in both Houses of Parliament votes to over-ride it. Not immediately but we’ve seen in NZ how fast the pace of change can be.

Incidentally there are a greater proportion of Australian MPs who are indigenous than there are in the population. 11 out of 227 MPs are indigenous or 4.8%, compared to 3.2% of the population.