The race for Auckland Central
Over the next three months I will profile all 72 electorate races, including a prediction being one of safe, likely, leans or too close to call. These will all be exclusively on my Patreon (sub needed).
In 2020 I went from North to South. In 2023 I am going to go alphabetically, so am starting with Auckland Central.
I’m including this initial one on Kiwiblog, so people can see what they will get if they subscribe.
The race for Auckland Central 2023
2020 Results
Majority: Gre 1,068 (64/72) or 3%
Nat Party Vote: 21% (51/72)
Lab Party Vote: 46% (49/72)
Gre Party Vote: 19% (4/72)
Nat Candidate Vote: 28% (46/65)
Lab Candidate Vote: 33% (68/72)
Green Candidate vote: 35%
Nat Candidate Vote/PV: 130%
Lab Candidate Vote/PV: 70%2023 Candidates
Green MP Chloe Swarbrick won the seat in 2020, after the retirement of Nikki Kaye. Prior to Kaye winning it in 2008, it had been a safe Labour seat. Swarbrick is standing again.
The 2020 Labour candidate Helen White, who was widely seen to be lacklustre, now is standing for the safe seat of Mt Albert. The new candidate is Oscar Sims a software developer and urban housing activist. Labour selected him over List MP Naisi Chen, when could be a mistake considering a third of the electorate is Asian.
National’s candidate is Mahesh Muralidhar, an entrepreneur and venture capitalist. He is running a high profile campaign, and has good links into the large ethnic community in the seat.
Also standing is Ted Johnston for New Conservatives and Damian Sycamore for TOP.
Demographics
Auckland Central is a seat for the young and childless. It has the lowest proportion of children in the country and the highest proportion of 25 to 35 year olds.
33% of the electorate are Asian and it has the highest proportion of Middle Eastern/Latin American/African residents in NZ at 5%.
Only 45% of the electorate were born in New Zealand – the lowest percentage in the country. A third of those born outside NZ have lived here for less than two years, so are probably overseas students.
40% of residents have lived at their current address for less than a year – the most transient population in the country.
A key issue may be turnout for those who are new to New Zealand. Historically their turnout is less than those here longer term.
2023 Outlook
Auckland Central is a red seat. It was held by the left for 90 years and votes left on the party vote. Labour and Greens got 65% of the party vote last election, the 20th highest in the country.
Incumbent MP Chloe Swarbrick has huge name recognition nationally. She often polls up to 5% as Preferred PM, and is in the media often, including as a columnist in the NZ Herald.
Labour’s candidate is not well known, but likely to perform relatively better than Helen White. However Labour is far less popular than in 2020.
National’s Emma Mellow came third in 2020, but that was on the back of a disastrous performance for the party nationally. With another good candidate in Mahesh Muralidhar, they could end up in at least second place.
Overall I rate the seat as Likely Green hold. Swarbrick is popular with both Labour and Green voters, and enough Labour voters will choose her over Sims that she should hold on.