Ohariu is not a deep blue seat!

The Herald reports:

The seat has been held for the past two terms by Labour’s Greg O’Connor, and before that United Future’s Peter Dunne. But aside from the last election, where the seat was swept up in the Covid “red tide” (Labour’s 51 per trouncing National’s 22 per cent), the party vote has long been a deep shade of blue.

This is not true. People have a myth about Ohariu that because it is not as deep red as Wellington Central and Rongotai, that it is true blue.

National las won Ohariu in 1981, or 14 elections ago.

If you combine Labour and Greens party vote against National and ACT, here is how the party vote has gone:

• 2020: CR 28% vs CL 65% = CL+37%
• 2017: CR 46% vs CL 45% = CR+1%
• 2014: CR 51% cs CL 39% = CR +12%
• 2011: CR 50% vs CL 41% = CR +9%
• 2008: CR 50% vs CL 42% = CR +8%
• 2005: CR 45% vs CL 45% = tie
• 2002: CR 35% vs CL 43% = CL +8%
• 1999: CR 48% vs CL 41% = CR +7%

That is not a deep blue seat. In 2005 the CR and CL vote was tied, as it almost was in 2017. Nad the CR lost the party vote in 2002. It has traditionally been a seat that is slightly more favourable to the CR, but not reliably.

In 2017 the left party vote of 45% was 32nd highest for the left out of 71 seats.

In 2020 it had a lower PV for National than Te Atatu and Mt Roskill. It is now Labour’s 19th safest seat. The combined CL party vote in 2020 was higher in Ohariu than in Wigram and Palmerston North.

This doesn’t mean Nicola Willis can’t win it. She’s a great candidate. But if she does, it will be a massive massive upset.