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June 16, 2023 11:00am by David Farrar

Houston we have a problem

Countries can run modest current account deficits without a problem. But when the deficit triples in size, it becomes a worry.

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bartybart

Labour are finding that attacking farmers and producers may have an affect after all
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June 16, 2023 11:03am
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Farming being a primary export industry and Labour attack it in the name of climate change. Vote wise, they did not think this through. Why not??
  
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  June 16, 2023 11:10am
  - peterwn
    
    It is the tub thumping that counts, not real action.
    
    27 0
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    June 16, 2023 11:21am
  - In Vino Veritas
    
    Labour knows who is not going to vote for them. And they therefore don’t give a shit how they treat them. National still tries to get votes from people that will never vote for them, and panders to them in various ways. Cut them loose. Do what Labour does, just have very public negative (even nasty) campaigns against those groups that don’t vote for them.
    
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    June 16, 2023 12:14pm
    - paulscott
      
      good
      
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      June 16, 2023 7:13pm
- kevn
  
  Interesting looking at an upside down graph. Generally increases show as up not down.
  
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  June 16, 2023 11:31am
  - Matt Long
    
    Note the y axis on that graph is missing 6 zeros.
    
    6 1
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    June 16, 2023 12:55pm
  - Ghost
    
    The graph shows -2.5 billion to -33 billion, it is the correct way around.
    
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    June 16, 2023 1:02pm
    - CJames
      
      Technically, it isn’t correct because of the label. If the title was “Current Account Balance” the graph would be correct. However, as the title says Deficit, then above the zero means a deficit and it would climb as it gets bigger.
      It might seem pedantic, but the graph would be a fail in most Maths classes because of the title.
      
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      June 16, 2023 2:03pm
    - kevn
      
      Indeed it is. Such big numbers.
      
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      June 16, 2023 4:31pm
    - paulscott
      
      He means the original perception where up equals more
      
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      June 16, 2023 7:16pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  bartybart bro – Let farmers and producers take it. After all these traitors ditched National and voted for their darling Cindy. They deserve everything that comes their way.
  
  4 17
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  June 16, 2023 12:59pm
  - PaulL
    
    They didn’t though really. That’s just a story. Mostly the various sea changers and tree changers in the region voted Labour. Hard core farmers probably didn’t. And those sea changers and tree changers might have seen what impact that has on the people around them.
    
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    June 16, 2023 1:19pm
    - plc
      
      But they did….as evidenced by the rural electorates that changed hands in 2020
      
      Looking at you Taranaki, Waiarapa etc.
      
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      June 16, 2023 1:47pm
      - andydownhere
        
        Not everyone in a rural electorate is a farmer. Maybe only 5% farm owners. The rest other businesses and employees. Some employees think Cindy saved them from covid. And some employees/voters actually liked the shut down cause they got paid not to work. Were hoping for more of the same next time. Brainless. Where does the money come from?
        
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        June 16, 2023 8:55pm
    - In Vino Veritas
      
      Farmers probably didn’t Paul, but I think you will find their wives did. It might have been on this site that I saw a breakdown of voters by gender, and there was a significant increase in females voting Labour, which carried the election as the male National|Labour split stayed around what it usually is.
      
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      June 16, 2023 2:58pm
      - Flossie
        
        Farmers wives? Women who farm are generally equal workers and partners in farming. Most I know are, and find the label of “farmer’s wife” deeply offensive.
        
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        June 16, 2023 4:13pm
      - Matt Long
        
        Not this farmer’s wife Vino, no known Labour voters in my circle.
        
        4 0
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        June 16, 2023 4:55pm
  - paulscott
    
    Aanother progressive liberal sniffing coloured daisies.
    
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    June 16, 2023 7:17pm
- Tom Hunter
  
  Chris Hipkins: All right, we’re not doing this, gentlemen. We are NOT going to do this. We’re not going to go bouncing off the walls for ten minutes, ’cause we’re just going to end up back here with the same problems! Try to figure out how to stay alive!
  
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  June 16, 2023 1:12pm
  - paulscott
    
    Tom H. By the middle of next year no one will remember who Hipkins was.
    
    2 0
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    June 16, 2023 7:19pm
- Wayne Mapp
  
  The primary reason for the dip is the lack of international students at the universities and the slow recovery of tourism, especially from China. The level of the NZ shutdowns was greater than other countries and this it has had this pronounced the delay in recovery. It is also the reason why most universities are having to reduce staff numbers. The student recovery may not fully occur until 2025 or 2026. Once students are lost from the system it is hard to get them back.
  In contrast farms exports have not decreased, but neither can they make up the shortfall.
  
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  June 16, 2023 2:41pm
  - Jack5
    
    Wayne Mapp’s … the student recovery may not fully occur until 2025 or 2026.
    
    If they didn’t throw in a path to citizenship, and thus eventual back-door entry to Australia, NZ universities would attract stuff-all foreign students.
    
    Investor entry to NZ is surely more lucrative to this country:
    
    https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/media-centre/news-notifications/changes-to-investor-migrant-settings
    
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    June 16, 2023 3:13pm
  - JackRabbit
    
    Bollocks. Overseas students do not bring in $15 billion a year.
    
    5 0
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    June 16, 2023 3:48pm
    - Wayne Mapp
      
      I was including international tourism as well, which would be larger in revenue terms than international students. Students, at their peak, would have been about $5 billion.
      
      0 0
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      June 16, 2023 7:44pm
  - Flossie
    
    Lots of foreign students were coming to NZ primarily to become proficient English speakers. Now that doesn’t seem to be a priority (i.e. speaking English) in this country they may prefer to take their cash and study elsewhere.
    
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    June 16, 2023 4:18pm
    - An Old Kiwi
      
      Exactly. If I was a wealthy foreign parent, why would I want to send my child (for high school or uni) to a country where pidgin-english is the norm. That’s not going to prepare them for a good job anywhere else in the world.
      
      2 0
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      June 17, 2023 2:04pm
  - NZer In Exile
    
    Sounds like a significant contributor. Throw in also exacerbating factors there; NZ’s universities have fallen significantly in global uni ratings, the cost of living in NZ, plus the crime/safety factor.
    
    1 0
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    June 17, 2023 8:35pm
Steve Otto(North Shore)

Dec 2020 was a good year, then someone started spending money.
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June 16, 2023 11:04am
- Local Miller
  
  I wonder if the improvement between mid-2019 and Dec-2020 was more because the $ was depreciating against the US$ and our imports had dropped than because our exports had improved.
  
  11 1
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  June 16, 2023 11:19am
  - Matt Long
    
    Soft commodities were up, Asian people were still buying food and other supply chains ie the US we’re broken because of rhe California Ports.
    Imports, offshore tourism and consumption were reduced but exports of softs while difficult to arrange continued.
    
    7 1
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    June 16, 2023 12:52pm
Ruawai

Covid, storms, covid, storms, rest of the world causing it, the Ukraine, covid ,etc etc etc…
31 0
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June 16, 2023 11:08am
- Suze Wainwright
  
  Labour’s Twitterati are getting particularly tetchy – you could almost think the polls that seemed a sure run thing earlier this year aren’t so sure anymore…
  
  33 0
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  June 16, 2023 11:17am
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Suze Wainwright – The election is still very close – it is just one or two seats this way or that way. Labour is not languishing in the mid 20s, They are up with National and the toxic Greens are up three points in the latest TPU-Curia poll. Maori party will win definitely 2 seats and there is a possibility of 1 or 2 seats overhang. So come October, Chippy could still be your PM and Robbo will be happily milking taxes.
    
    12 2
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    June 16, 2023 1:01pm
    - Paulus
      
      Robbo as a list MP will not want to c0ntinue with the damage he and Dame Jacinda have wrought in New Zealand.
      
      8 2
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      June 16, 2023 1:09pm
    - Suze Wainwright
      
      SCS – there was definitely a quiet confidence among leftish commentariat earlier this year; there seems to have been a bit of a change in their vocabulary more recently
      
      14 0
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      June 16, 2023 1:19pm
  - expat
    
    What with RNZ being cut off as a propogada tool and all
    
    8 0
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    June 16, 2023 4:03pm
- Bobba Fret
  
  And nine years of neglect……….you forgot that one!
  
  13 0
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  June 16, 2023 1:11pm
  - Kiwiguy
    
    We need to start throwing that old outdated meme back in their faces with:
    
    Six years of suffering
    Six years of slander
    Six years of smugness
    Six years of sneering
    Six years of sordidness
    Six years of spite
    Six years of starving
    Six years of stifling
    Six years of stumbling
    Six years of suppression
    
    Take your pick!
    
    18 0
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    June 16, 2023 3:15pm
    - artemisia
      
      Six years of shambles.
      
      11 0
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      June 16, 2023 3:56pm
    - Countrygirl
      
      Six years of stuff all.
      
      5 0
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      June 16, 2023 5:00pm
    - NZer In Exile
      
      Six years of incompetence and failure.
      
      0 0
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      June 17, 2023 8:36pm
    - wsk12345
      
      Six years of sugar (for the special People)
      
      0 0
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      September 25, 2023 11:18am
Close Hen Counters

I wish Steven Joyce could help us – he was fabulous on Hosking this morning …. Said blaming the weather on what has happened is rubbish
46 0
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June 16, 2023 11:09am
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  Close Hen – That is what the sheeple who vote Labour are saying in twitter – Covid, Ukraine war, climate change to blame, not Labour.
  
  19 2
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  June 16, 2023 1:02pm
fightingtemeraire

Saw that Primary Industries exported 50+ billion last year.

Depends on what has been imported. Is it a series of big-ticket items like planes, ships, machinery for a big project etc. Or is it a deficit through importing rubbish.
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June 16, 2023 11:10am
- JackRabbit
  
  A deficit by spending. Vaccines anyone?
  
  And overseas consultants, domiciled in the canary Islands.
  
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  June 16, 2023 3:51pm
Im Right

It’s NEVER a problem as Robinson always picks other countries as examples that have worse stats,…I for one am not interested in those other countries as I live in THIS one!
34 0
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June 16, 2023 11:11am
- peterwn
  
  It is Grant Robertson. The Robinsons in NZ will not be happy.
  
  16 0
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  June 16, 2023 11:23am
  - ClanMcleod
    
    ‘Lost in Space” is entirely appropriate in this context.
    
    15 1
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    June 16, 2023 12:31pm
    - JackRabbit
      
      Or on a Pacific Island. He has his man Friday.
      
      5 0
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      June 16, 2023 3:54pm
70andstilllearning

Wonder how long it will be until businesses require a cash foreign funds”deposit” before you can buy a new import item? Reminds me of the past ….
26 1
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June 16, 2023 11:13am
wreck1080

Labour continue to blame covid, gets boring.
22 0
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June 16, 2023 11:19am
- ClanMcleod
  
  Yup – covid did NOTHING to the economy. The ludicrous responses to it are what caused all of the problems.
  
  Most people figure out “it wasn’t me, it was the cat” doesn’t work once you’re over the age of 7.
  
  23 0
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  June 16, 2023 12:34pm
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  wreck1080 – At least they seemed to have dropped – “Nine long years of neglect” line…..
  
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  June 16, 2023 1:03pm
the deity formerly known as nigel6888

I blame 9 years of the previous government, er ooops. What was the question again?

Why is it that Labour always ends up leaving the country in a deficit? It’s almost as if they cannot manage money, have stupid ideas about how economies really work, and always need someone else to come along and fix their shit, while they cavil and moan from the sidelines about evil Tories…. rinse and repeat, ad nauseum.
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June 16, 2023 11:26am
- Christopher Thomson
  
  And New Zealanders continue to vote the bastards back in when things become good again.
  
  What the fuck is wrong with the nations psyche?
  
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  June 16, 2023 11:38am
  - Burtland
    
    NZ votes to get the free stuff – its like flybuys
    
    19 0
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    June 16, 2023 12:03pm
  - Sir Cullen's Sidekick
    
    Christopher T – Sheeple didn’t vote Labour back in. A vengeful drunken dwarf did.
    
    16 1
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    June 16, 2023 1:04pm
    - John Loveridge
      
      It was the fundamental democratic principle of one man, one vote. Winston was the man, and he had the vote.
      
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      June 16, 2023 3:16pm
- crikey
  
  Nigel…They’re not totally stupid as they know the ‘evil Tories’, based on past performance, will fix the problems but not undo the essence of Labour’s actions.
  
  Message for National (and ACT): Have courage, set about undoing Labour’s nonsense with alacrity, i.e. with brisk and cheerful readiness.
  
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  June 16, 2023 12:12pm
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  This is the sixth time they have done it, but there are still those hard core Labour voters who will vote for Labour again. They do not see Labour as Socialist, Communist, Marxist or whatever. They just see Labour as the provider of free stuff! The fact that someone has to pay for this free stuff is irrelevant.
  The Govt does not give them free stuff, the ever paying Taxpayer does.
  Rant over.
  
  24 0
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  June 16, 2023 12:33pm
  - Paulus
    
    The polls analysed still continue to suggest that again it is the women voter who controls the ultimate results.
    Cannot see any difference again his time when it comes to the Ballot boxes.
    Maybe yes, Maybe no !
    
    8 0
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    June 16, 2023 1:12pm
    - the deity formerly known as nigel6888
      
      So what you are saying is extending the suffrage to women was a mistake? Seems women cannot be trusted to vote with their heads, but will vote whatever “feels” fairest.
      
      Hmmm. Whoever can turn this into an election strategy will therefore always win (or will simply stuff the ballots like they do in the US)…
      
      5 0
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      June 16, 2023 5:48pm
  - Paulus
    
    The polls analysed still continue to suggest that again it is the women voter who controls the ultimate results.
    Cannot see any difference again his time when it comes to the Ballot boxes.
    Maybe yes, Maybe no !
    
    7 0
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    June 16, 2023 1:13pm
kevn

It’s called ‘being robbed’.
Mainly due to waste and bizarre decisions.
10 0
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June 16, 2023 11:33am
- Sir Cullen's Sidekick
  
  ken – “being robboed” fixed it for ya!
  
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  June 16, 2023 1:05pm
The Other Enoch

Holy crap! I didn’t realise that it was this bad.
9 0
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June 16, 2023 11:33am
krazykiwi

Spending ‘like a drunken sailor’ is too kind to Robertson: At least that sailor had some skill when sober.
21 0
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June 16, 2023 11:35am
- Right of way is Way of Right
  
  I take offence to that. I was in the Navy for 37 years, and frequently drunk, and when I run out of money, I stop spending!
  
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  June 16, 2023 11:48am
  - krazykiwi
    
    Lol. And when you weren’t drunk you were a competent sailor… which is more than can be said for Robertson.
    
    13 0
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    June 16, 2023 1:26pm
Musings

Common graph shape for the Labour Government, in everything but Beneficiary numbers and cost.
14 0
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June 16, 2023 11:40am
Clyde

Fair enough, Robertson was speaking to Hosking from Oz this morning, so it was early but he sounded tired and hopelessly out of his depth.

What is the story that is running in the Herald about a rogue reporter and Chippie?
17 0
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June 16, 2023 11:49am
Gaetano

I suspect that few readers here will be aware that in 2020 the Government launched a primary industries export strategy. It is called “Fit for a Better World”. No, I am not making this up.

https://fitforabetterworld.org.nz/about/our-roadmap/

It has, as a target, lifting primary exports by $44 billion between 2020 and 2030.

I have actually read the entire document. After reading it I have no idea what the Government is going to do to achieve such a target. Indeed, the Government’s policies seem intended to do the exact opposite.
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June 16, 2023 11:54am
- ClanMcleod
  
  But at least it’s more “aspiration”……….
  
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  June 16, 2023 12:36pm
- Steve Otto(North Shore)
  
  Thankyou for reading it so I don’t have to. The first page layout tells me it is shit.
  A 13 year old could have done better.
  
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  June 16, 2023 12:37pm
- John Loveridge
  
  Even back in the good old days of 2020 they managed to insert a substantial amount of Maori hocus pocus into all the other drivel. Imagine how that would read in 2023 Aotearoan Officialese.
  
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  June 16, 2023 3:20pm
rouppe

This sort of thing needs to be shown by the msm.

They loved the “hockey stick graph” so much, why not this one?
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June 16, 2023 12:00pm
wreck1080

I find it strange how financial markets shrug off such data. 15 years ago, the NZD would have sunk like a stone on such bad news. This week, the NZD has strengthened! Very strange.

The same applies with interest rate movements, the NZD seems to move in the opposite direction of what one would expect.
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June 16, 2023 12:13pm
- stiff cheese
  
  Perhaps the markets think Adrian Orr is taking a pause on “declaring dollars into existence” . . which means a pause on buying back Robertson’s borrowings (Govt Bonds) with ‘new’ money.
  
  Alternatively, the markets are pricing in a change of Govt, therefore less of the “borrow and spend” mentality.
  
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  June 16, 2023 1:02pm
- 70andstilllearning
  
  I’ve come to the conclusion that the markets take NZ Stats data releases ( and commentary ) with a grain of salt these days. If you can change a metric’s criteria and historical numbers to suit a narrative ( think child poverty data a couple of years back ) anything goes!
  
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  June 16, 2023 2:59pm
Local Miller

“when the deficit triples in size”

Hang on, in Dec 2017 the deficit was about -$7,000 Million (please DPF include the scaling in your graphs). It’s now at -$35,000 Million, this isn’t 3 times, it’s 5 times!
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June 16, 2023 12:26pm
Swifty

Hey Bullion, wanna explain this one for us?
8 0
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June 16, 2023 12:30pm
Rumblestrip

$33 billion! That is about 9% of our GDP. Is this the lowest it has ever been?
4 0
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June 16, 2023 1:05pm
- cmm
  
  Are you maybe confusing debt and deficit?
  
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  June 16, 2023 1:46pm
  - Rumblestrip
    
    I’m no economist, but isn’t the current account balance frequently expressed as a percentage, or ratio, of GDP?
    
    A quick Google seems to confirm it is the lowest (i.e. most negative) current account deficit on record.
    
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    June 16, 2023 3:01pm
Tom Hunter

“Failure is not an option!”

Ah, Flight? We’re getting down range reports of falling debris.
6 0
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June 16, 2023 1:11pm
colina

This is what you get when you close the borders far too long flood the economy with printed cash, force up min wages by 40% and the flow on effect to all others with virtually no productivty increase. Then the Govt continues to spend like a drunken sailor on shore leave. At some stage the currency will adjust significantly making us all the poorer, adding to losses from inflation.
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June 16, 2023 1:14pm
Tom Hunter

[Chris and Grant are trying to regain control of the Labour Party module]

Chris Hipkins: We’re all out of whack. We try to pitch to centre but we yaw to the left. Why can’t I null this out?

Grant Robertson:She wasn’t designed to fly attached like this. Our center of gravity is all those Labour MP’s we gained in 2020

Chris Hipkins: It’s like flying with a dead elephant on our back.
8 1
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June 16, 2023 1:23pm
mstewart

Someone is in the driver’s seat who obviously never got their licence
7 0
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June 16, 2023 1:44pm
coge

Thanks Labour! But lamentably, National expect to win playing a weak hand. This entitlement is palpable.
4 0
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June 16, 2023 1:59pm
cmm

Who cares?
Toitū te Ōhanga, Toitū te Oranga have spent $15 million Maori-izing their website. Surely that’s a all that matters?
10 0
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June 16, 2023 2:26pm
Opie

Grant Robertson.

The guy who borrowed money to pay the power bill but bought a spa pool instead.
11 0
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June 16, 2023 2:31pm
Loddenthinks

Another news item where, inexplicably, the tribal affiliations of the person were not mentioned. Seems to be a bit of a pattern here….

“An Alexandra woman has been jailed for more than two years after racking up her 10th and 11th drink-driving convictions.

Kayla Te Ata Rangi Graham (36) caused havoc on the road in two incidents within seven months, forcing members of the public to intervene on both occasions.”
14 0
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June 16, 2023 3:01pm
lifesgood

Labour voters be Labour voters. I heard some stupid woman on ZB talk back a few nights ago listing all the ways Labour have failed. She made a lengthy list of it. THEN she stated “I have always voted Labour and I will again because I vote with my heart not my head” Sheesh…they live among us.
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June 16, 2023 3:06pm
ecco

Not going to make any difference to the election outcome as long as Labour have enough people on government payments. That means welfare, govt jobs like policy analysts, student allowances,child care subsidies etc. These people don’t have a financial cell in their head, it’s all just about what’s in it for them.
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June 16, 2023 9:46pm
soundhill1

I’m waiting to see what happens to te picture with te coming introduction of central bank digital currency. That may make it harder for op shops and Facebook trades to happen. How have they been identified in the budget? Because re-use of second hand goods and clothing especially must reduce the CO2 budget but not boost GDP.
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June 17, 2023 12:05am

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Links

Justice in Brazil
No Right Turn
"Seymour is only doing openly what M?ori nationalists and their Pakeha allies have been doing, quietly for the past 50 years."
Not PC
Daily review 22/11/2024
The Standard
Do the KCs believe in democracy
Utopia
More young offenders will get boot camp, bus drivers will get some protection – and there’s relief for southern farmers
Point of Order
Your Cheatin’ Ballot III: Pennsylvania Right Now
No Minister
Sowell says
Hompaddock
New Zealand government urged to back ICC arrest warrants for Israeli leaders without equivocation
The Daily Blog
The transgender agenda sunk Kamala
Bob McCoskrie's McBlog
SETTING THE RECORD STRAIGHT
No Punches Pulled (Bob Jones)
What does “reciprocity” mean in New Zealand laws?
Croaking Cassandra
A Day of Reckoning
NZCPR
Media Link: “A View from Afar” on the US elections.
Kiwipolitico
This will not end well
Offsetting Behaviour
Top 14 Predictions for Round 10
Stats Chat
Tory Whanau may have to sell Wellington mayoralty to make ends meet
The Civilian
The Accidental Engagement
Imperator Fish
Making this movie might have been a mistake
Liam Hehir
Why I am retiring from political blogging
Kiwi FireWalker
Angie Warren-Clark: Meet the Newbies
Dan Moskovitz

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