Gareth thinks Greens can win three electorates

Gareth Hughes writes:

Green strategists must be champing at the bit now that Grant Robertson won’t be standing again in Wellington Central, and Jacinda Ardern, Paul Eagle and David Clark are retiring from their Mount Albert, Rongotai, and Dunedin electorates.

Those are four of the Greens’ highest-performing five seats. The other is currently held by Chlöe Swarbrick, opening up a unique opportunity in October for the Greens to ditch a decades-old strategy that shuns seriously standing in electorates.

Hughes thinks the Greens have a real chance of winning both Wellington Central and Rongotai. Both seats will be very interesting to follow.

In fact this election, there will be a record number of seats which could potentially switch hands.

Northland
Whangārei
Maungakiekie
Tukituki
Upper Harbour
Northcote
New Plymouth
Hamilton East
Otaki
Ilam
Hutt South
Rangitata
Nelson
Napier
West Coast Tasman
East Coast
Wairarapa
Takanini
Whanganui
Ohariu
Rongotai
Wellington Central
Te Tai Hauāuru
Tāmaki Makaurau
Waiariki 

So that’s 25 out of 72 electorates which could be in play.

As I did in 2020, I plan to analyse the race in each of the 72 electorates on my Patreon page later this year. I’ll start the series once the major parties have completed candidate selection.