The rise and fall of Jacinda Ardern

I have charted below favourability data for Jacinda Ardern ranging from the week she became Labour Leader to last week. They tell a very powerful story, that explains a lot. There are three charts – one showing her favourability, one showing her unfavourability and the final one showing the net favourability.

In the few weeks she was Leader of the Opposition, a very high 60% to 70% of New Zealanders had a favourable view of her (incidentally Bill English had comparable numbers – the 2017 election was a rarity in a choice between two very popular leaders).

As Prime Minister her first 15 months saw between 60% and 75% of New Zealanders having a favourable opinion of her. That is massively high, showing even those not voting Labour still liked her massively.

There was a decline in early 2019 to the high 50s but her masterclass handling of the Christchurch mosque massacre rightly saw her favourability go back up to 73%.

After that there was a sustained slide to around 55% at the end of 2019. Now 55% is not as good as 73% but still very good – anything over 50% is an election winning position. There was a small boost in 2019, which saw the White Island eruption tragedy.

Then Covid-19 struck and her favourability soared to an unprecedented 80%. Over the next six months it declined, but still remained massively high at around 65% going into the 2020 election, where she scored a majority Government.

There was a six month gap of polling so we pick up in mid 2021 where she is at 54% and she climbs to 60% in September. Then the big decline starts. Probably not a coincidence that Christopher Luxon became National Leader then, because that gave a more credible alternative. But that is only part of it, as people can like more than one leader.

Over the next six months she fell from around 60% to 50%. That was mainly, I believe, a reaction to continuing Covid-19 restrictions and also a feeling NZers were now overexposed to her. The protests at Parliament occurred late in that period.

Then over the last nine months her favourability fell from 50% top 40%. Any movement of more than 3% is usually significant. This probably reflects the cost of living pressures due to high inflation. Families were struggling, so you don’t think so favourably of the PM.

Also through all this has been what I call a delivery failure by the Government on almost all its major promises such as Kiwibuild, Auckland Light Rail etc. Jacinda was seen as well-meaning but ineffective in delivering. The three major crises of Christchurch, White Island and Covid-19 played to her considerable strengths and without them she may actually have hit 40% earlier than now. The decline in 2019 may have continued on.

This shows what proportion of New Zealanders have an unfavourable view of Jacinda Ardern. One can not have a favourable view but not necessarily have an unfavourable one. So it is significant as to how many people actually will say they don’t like someone, because if they don’t like you they probably can’t be persuaded to vote for your party.

For most of her first 18 months, fewer than 20% of New Zealanders disliked her. As National was polling in the 40s for much of that time, this means that most National voters didn’t dislike her (including me).

There was a slight increase to 22% in March 2019, and then again after Christchurch this declined to just 13%.

2019 then saw a pretty big increase in unfavourability on what was billed by Jacinda as the year of delivery. The slogan became a punching bag, for the lack of. Her unfavourables hit 27% in October 2019, dropped away over summer but back to 26% in early 2020.

The pandemic saw her unfavourables drop to a minuscule 8%. I doubt any democratic leader has ever had a lower number of unfavourables. The nation tuned into the daily 1 pm press conferences to be reassured by her.

Over 2020 the unfavourables rose to around 20%, but that is still massively historically low, especially during an election campaign.

Fast forward to mid 2021 and only a slight increase to 23%. But the latter part of 2021 saw growing resistance to the Covid-19 measures and for the first time in four years, criticism of Ardern was becoming widespread. Prior to then, if you were at a function, it would have been almost unsafe to say a bad word about her, but now anecdotally it was becoming common. Her unfavourables went to 33%.

2022 saw an undulating trend of growing unpopularity, culminating in 41% having an unfavorable view, this month. The cost of living is part of that, but also more and more people feeling the Government has not been transformational or even effective.

Now 41% unfavourability is five times the level she was at just two and a half years ago. But it is also not that high by world standards. Biden and Trump are usually around 55% unfavourable and Liz Truss managed 80%. So it is not that she was unpopular with the majority, but with a very large minority.

The net favourability is the one I refer to the most – the favourables less unfavourables. It combines the other two.

She spent the first two years at between +40% and +60% which is massive. John Key never got quite that high (but he sustained his much longer – when he retired after eight years he was at +19%).

Just prior to Christchurch she was at +37% and then hit +60%. From there the net rating fell to +30% in late 2019. Covid-19 saw it go from +30% (which is still a great rating) to +72% which is the sort of level George W Bush had after 9/11. In a disaster patriotism trumps politics.

By the 2020 election she was at +42%, much the same as in the 2017 election. A strong position after one term, and up against the third National leader in six months, hence a massive win.

By mid 2021 she was at +30%. This fell to +15% in late 2021 and then top a bit to +22% in early 2022.

2022 saw the net favourability decline to +4% mid year, rebound to +12% and then a gradual decline until she hit -1% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released today (taken 10 to 16 January).

So a brilliantly gifted communicator who was at +40% for many years, soared to +80% in early to mid 2020 and then a massive fall to -1% at the beginning of election year.

Comparisons can be made to both George W Bush and Winston Churchill. Bush remained popular for quite a few years after the 9/11 attacks, but he was also undone by a poor economy. Churchill saves the UK and the world from Hitler, but lost office because people don’t vote on gratitude for the past, but their hope for a better future.

Having failed to deliver so much in five years, it was proving harder and harder to excite people about what a third term for Jacinda Ardern would mean as almost every issue they got elected on in 2017 (housing, health, mental health, education) has got worse or is in a state of crisis. A third term for Janda would mean at best signing off a business case for Auckland Light Rail, when they had promised construction would be complete. It shouldn’t take nine years to develop a business case for a core promise.

I will write elsewhere on Jacinda’s legacy – the highs and low. This post is more about the data – charting her rise and fall with the public of New Zealand.