How much of a honeymoon bump do new leaders get?
It is very typical for new leaders to get a bump in the polls. The One News time series goes back to 1974, so what has been the bump (if any) in the (party) vote for each new leader.
- Palmer 8 Aug 89 +16%
- Ardern 1 Aug 17 +13%
- Lange 3 Feb 83 +9%
- Muller 22 May 20 +9%
- Clark 1 Dec 93 +7%
- McLay 26 Nov 84 +7%
- Little 18 Nov 14 +6%
- Moore 4 Sep 90 +5%
- Luxon 30 Nov 21 +4%
- Bolger 26 Mar 86 +4%
- Shipley 8 Dec 97 +4%
- Brash 28 Oct 03 +4%
- English 12 Nov 16 +2%
- Shearer 13 Dec 11 +1%
- Cunliffe 15 Sep 13 +1%
- English 8 Oct 01 +1%
- Bridges 27 Feb 18 +1%
- Key 27 Nov 06 -3%
- Collins 14 Jul 20 -6%
- Goff 11 Nov 08 -7%
So of the 20 leadership changes of a major party since 1974, 17 of them saw a rise in the party vote in the next One News poll. The median increase was 4%. The top third saw increases of 6% to 16%.
Worth noting that an initial poll bounce does not guarantee victory. Key at first polled 3% less than Brash. Palmer and Muller both never got to fight an election. Brash only had a 4% increase initially but then went up a further 17%.
The other factor is that the time between a leadership change and the first One News poll is variable. If it is done before they have had to make any decisions, then they are more likely to get a bounce than if it is a few months down the road.
Also worth noting that only 3 of the 20 leadership changes saw the new leader win the next election. Bolger and Clark only won on their second attempts.