December 22, 2022 11:00am by David Farrar

Scoring my 2022 predictions

Last December I did my usual 20 predictions for the year. Now it is time to see how I did.

  1. Peeni Henare will not be Minister of Defence by the end of 2022. Wrong 0/1
  2. There will be a by-election in 2022. There were two 1/1
  3. NZ First will record at least 4% in at least once public poll. In more than one 1/1
  4. By the end of 2022 (after five years) the Government will not have achieved even 5% of its ten year targets for houses or trees. They are at 1.5% and 4.3% so 1/1
  5. The Republicans will win the House and the Senate in the mid terms. House yes Senate no so 0.5/1
  6. Phil Goff will not be re-elected Mayor of Auckland. He did not stand 1/1
  7. The Government will back down on Three Waters having equal co-governance between Councils and Iwi. They did not, silly buggers 0/1
  8. Paul Eagle will be elected Mayor of Wellington. Came third 0/1
  9. By the end of 2022, fewer than 7% of Government vehicles will be emissions free.At 5% so 1/1
  10. Fleur Fitzsimons will be appointed the Labour candidate for Rongotai. She is not yet confirmed but little doubt it is here so 0.5/1
  11. Construction will not have begun in light rail in Auckland. Easy 1/1
  12. National will poll over 35% in at least one public poll. In many polls 1/1
  13. Tim Shadbolt will not be re-elected Mayor of Invercargill. Thank goodness 1/1
  14. Boris Johnson will be rolled as Conservative Party Leader. Called that one right 1/1
  15. Labour will repeal the Three Strikes Law. Sadly 1/1
  16. Donald Trump will announce his candidacy for 2024, if the Republicans gain at least 20 seats in the House and win the Senate. He did announce even though they fell short so 0.5/1
  17. The Greens will change their rules so both co-leaders can be women. They have 1/1
  18. Labor will win the Australian Federal Election. They did 1/1
  19. At least one area of NZ will be moved into the red level of the Covid traffic light system in 2022. No, thankfully 0/1
  20. There will be a state funeral in 2022. A lucky or unlucky call 1/1

My total score for 2022 is 14.5/20.

I will publish my 2023 predictions in the next few days.