Kiwiblog’s 2023 predictions
Here’s my 20 predictions for this year, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got 14.5/20 right for 2022.
- National will win more party votes and seats than Labour at the general election
- ACT will win more party votes than the Greens at the general election, unless Chloe Swarbrick becomes a co-leader
- There will be a National-led Government
- NZ First will make 5%, but will not hold the balance of power
- By the end of 2023 (after six years) the Government will not have achieved even 6% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
- Ron DeSantis will announce he is standing for President of the United States
- Joe Biden will announce he is seeking re-election
- The Government will not pass its compulsory income insurance into law before the election
- National will win at least 10 electorates off Labour
- Construction will not have begun in light rail in Auckland
- One or more major banks will have floating mortgage rates of 8% or higher in 2023
- NZ will avoid a recession by having only one quarter of negative growth in 2023
- Labour will deliver small tax cuts to the lowest rate or bracket in the Budget
- At least two more Ministers will announce they are retiring at the election
- The Maori Party will win at least two of the seven Maori seats
- At least one Labour Minister who holds an electorate will go list only
- Gerry Brownlee will become the 32nd Speaker of the House
- Fighting will continue in Ukraine throughout 2023
- The general election will be in November 2023
- Stuff will introduce a paywall