Terrible results for the Republicans
The 2022 mid terms were basically terrible for the Republicans. They have gone backwards in the Senate, backwards with Governorships and they look like they will only pick up half a dozen seats net in the House.
This is atypical. On average the party not holding the Presidency gains 28 House seats and five Senate seats. Add into the mix that there was a cost of living crisis and a President with very low approval rating and you would normally expect them to have gained 35+ House seats.
The Dobbs decision on abortion was no doubt a factor, but it is clear from the results that candidate quality was also a large factor. There was a huge amount of ticket splitting where people voted differently for Governor and Senate.
In Georgia Brian Kemp was re-elected with a 7% margin while Walker trails by 1% in the Senate. No coincidence that Trump campaigned against Kemp and endorsed Walker.
The problem for the GOP is that Trump has a binary test for endorsements – do you support my fantasy that I actually won the last election. So you have candidates for Governor and Senate who lost what should have been easy races to win. Even worse is that Trump spent large on the primaries but spent almost nothing on the actual general election.
And this week he is going to announce his candidacy for 2024. Six months ago I thought he would win the nomination and win the general election in 2024. Now I think the Republicans will lose if he is the candidate. Yes Biden may be dementing slightly, but we saw in Pennsylvania voters will select an impaired Democrat over a bad Republican candidate.
Trump is obsessed with his loss in 2020, In 2024 he will campaign on just one issue – that he never really lost. This is not how you will win the electoral college.
And he will spend half the campaign attacking anyone in his own party who does not swear fealty to him. A few days before the election he starts attacking Ron DeSantis and since the election Glenn Youngkin.
And now there is a clear alternative in Ron DeSantis. His 20 point victory in Florida was mammoth. He won the Latino vote. Put a 46 year old DeSantis up against 81 year old Joe Biden, and he would crush him.
DeSantis, like Trump, is exceptionally good at fighting the culture war, but unlike Trump he can also govern competently.
The problem for DeSantis is that even if he beats Trump in the primary (if he stands), Trump will either set up a third party and split the vote or attack DeSantis from the sidelines non-stop. So by Trump standing, he possibly guarantees Biden being re-elected.
The best outcome for the Republicans would be Trump gets indicted and convicted for breaching national security laws and DeSantis becomes the candidate.