US Senate neck and neck

There seems little doubt the GOP will win back the House. But the Senate is looking to be a thriller.

The Democrats should have been facing wipeout here as they are defending so many seats in states Biden lost. But the GOP selected some pretty bad candidates. So the Dems in June were at just 40% to keep control. Then the Dobbs decision, some wins for Biden and bad candidates for the GOP saw their chances at 538 increased to 70% in mid September. But the last month has seen it drop day after day and now they are at 52% – neck and neck.

The four key seats are Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona. The GOP need to win 2 to get the majority.

Georgia should have been an easy win but the GOP candidate has paid for more abortions than is healthy for an anti-abortion candidates. However he is now 0.2% ahead.

In Nevada the poll average is tied at 48.1% each. However momentum appears to be with GOP’s Laxalt.

Arizona should also have been an easy win for the GOP but Blake Masters has not appealed to many and trails be 3% 0 within the margin of error.

Most interesting is the one GOP held seat of Pennsylvania. This should not be competitive but again the GOP candidate Dr Oz was a bad pick, seen as a New Jersey carpetbagger. However the Democratic candidate John Fetterman had a terrible debate which shows he should not be a candidate after he had a stroke, and even though he has a 1.3% lead, many expect him to lose.

All four seats could go either way so could have 51 seats Democrats if they win all four to 53 seats Republicans if they win them all.