The race for Auckland

Bernard Orsman reports:

The Auckland mayoral race is wide open after the first public poll shows virtually nothing separating the top four candidates.

The Ratepayers’ Alliance-Curia mayoral poll has Labour councillor Efeso Collins and restaurateur Leo Molloy each on 21.7 per cent, Heart of the City chief executive Viv Beck on 20.5 per cent and businessman Wayne Brown on 20.1 per cent.

Freelance media operator Craig Lord, who came third in the 2019 mayoral race, was four points behind the leading pack on 16 per cent.

It’s a four way statistical tie, and even the 5th place candidate is within the 95% confidence interval of the leading candidates.

This is both bad and good news for Efeso Collins. It is remarkable that despite Labour’s endorsement he is not polling higher. But the good news for him is that if the other four candidates remain in the race and there is no front-runner, then Collins could win with 25% to 30% of the vote. And Labour’s endorsement and campaign machine should get him there.

The poll is also good and bad news for the other candidates. The good news is they all have viable chance of winning. The bad news is as they all have a viable chance, none of them will pull out. There is no obvious front-runner for voters who want a change from the status quo to get behind.