Which MPs would Labour lose on current polling?
A reader asked me which Labour MPs would be out on the latest ONK poll. This poll would see Labour going from 65 to 47 seats, so losing 18 seats. If you assume no change in electorate seats then the List MPs who would be out (in order) are:
- ROBERTS, Angela Susan
- WHITE, Helen
- BROOKING, Rachel Jane
- KANONGATA’A-SUISUIKI, Anahila Lose
- OMER IBRAHIM SALEH, Ibrahim
- CRAIG, Elizabeth Dorothy
- CHEN, Naisi
- COFFEY, Tamati Gerald
- CLARK, Angela Maree
- LUBECK, Maria Josina Elisabeth
- TINETTI, Janette Rose
- BELICH, Camilla Vera Feslier
- WALL, Louisa Hareruia
- JACKSON, William Wakatere
- VERRALL, Ayesha Jennifer
- FAAFOI, Kristopher John
- MALLARD, Trevor Colin
- PARKER, David William
However it is likely Labour will lose some electorate seats also. Their smallest margins (to National) are:
- Northland
- Whangarei
- Maungakiekie
- Tukituki
- Upper Harbour
- Northcote
- New Plymouth
- Hamilton East
- Otaki
- Ilam
- Hutt South
- Rangitata
All these seats have a majority of below 4,500. Nelson, Whanganui, Hamilton West and even West Coast-Tasman could come into play. But’s let’s assume those 12 seats go to National. Then Labour loses six List MPs and 12 electorate MPs, so those out would be:
- BENNETT, Glen Thomas
- NGOBI, Terisa Telesia
- HENDERSON, Lorenza Emily Preston
- PALLETT, Sarah Jean
- HALBERT, Shanan
- ROBERTS, Angela Susan
- WHITE, Helen
- BROOKING, Rachel Jane
- ANDERSEN, Virginia Ruby
- KANONGATA’A-SUISUIKI, Anahila Lose
- OMER IBRAHIM SALEH, Ibrahim
- CRAIG, Elizabeth Dorothy
- STRANGE, Jamie Ross
- LUXTON, Jo-Anne Marie
- CHEN, Naisi
- COFFEY, Tamati Gerald
- PRIME, Willow-Jean
- CLARK, Angela Maree