Is it usual to be behind, halfway through your second term?
Jon Johansson writes:
Temporary relief at the pump shows how nimble government can be when sufficiently motivated. Same with border openings happening sooner and vaccine passes going too. Polling had nothing to do with fuelling Labour’s motivation, according to the Government.
Nevertheless, Labour’s poll reversal has it in good company for a government four-and-a-half years in. Only Sir ‘Teflon John’ Key bucked the trend, selling high to retire undefeated, with National never once behind in TVNZ polls while he was Prime Minister.
This got me wondering how Governments normally fare at this stage of the electoral cycle. So here’s the One News poll for all the MMP Governments at this stage:
- May 95 – National Govt 13% ahead of Labour
- Feb 04 – Labour Govt 6% behind National (1st post Orewa poll)
- Feb 13 – National Govt 16% ahead of Labour
- Feb 22 – Labour Govt 2% behind National
So it is rare for the Government to lag at this stage. The only other time they did, was just after the Orewa speech which saw National climb 18%.