January 10, 2022 7:00am by David Farrar

Omicron when?

We seem to have dodged a bullet with Omicron so far. But how long will our luck hold?
The Australian states of New South Wales and Victoria are currently struggling to keep their heads above water, with 45,000 reported cases in NSW in the past 24 hours.
Experts and politicians agree its arrival in New Zealand is inevitable – and they are grappling with the questions: When do we let Omicron in? And how?

The number of cases is not a hugely useful metric. Take the US for example. The number of daily cases is a massive 219% higher than a year ago, yet the number of deaths is 36% lower.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely has been outspoken in his stance on Omicron: it’s coming, so let’s front foot it.
Blakely is in the thick of an Omicron outbreak in Victoria, but – somewhat controversially – believes New Zealand is in a good position to “embrace” Omicron.

95% of the eligible population have had at least done dose and 92% a second dose. So why are we still Fortress NZ? Are we waiting for 96%? 97%?

Omicon is inevitable, and I think we’re far better to have it come into NZ in summer, than in winter.