Roy Morgan poll October 2021

The October 2021 Roy Morgan is out.

Party Vote

• Labour 39.5% (-6.0% from September)
• National 26.0% (+3.0%)
• Greens 10.5% (+1.0%)
• ACT 16.0% (nc)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Seats

• Labour 51 (-14 from election)
• National 33 (nc)
• Greens 13 (+3)
• ACT 20 (+10)
• Maori 3 (+1)

Governments

• Labour/Green 64/120
• National/ACT 53/120

Direction

• Right 48.0% (-9.0%)
• Wrong 38.5% (+6.5%)

The change in country direction is the most significant part of the poll. If right direction stays under 50%, the government struggles.

A bad poll for Labour as they fall under the psychological 40% barrier. National will be happy to be up 3% but just being back to where you were at the election is not enough. National needs to get into the 30s. ACT will be very happy to stay at 16% and Greens also happy to be up a bit.

The gender gap has shrunk. National/ACT is 4% (+2%) ahead of Labour/Greens with men but gone from 34% behind with women to 19% behind. This is important as closing that gender gap is critical.