Can 90% be acheived?

A reader writes in:

The roadmap out of lockdowns announced by the government is a Claytons roadmap.

Predictably, it was greeted mostly favourably by the media. However, this time even some business groups appear to have been suckered.

The minimum vaccination requirements are probably unachievable.

Firstly, Dr Bloomfield has said that around 5% of people receiving their first dose do not go on to get their second dose.

If this remains consistent, then a 90% full vaccination rate would require a 95% first dose rate – an unlikely prospect.

Secondly, the 90% requirement is not an average rate. The lowest performing DHB area must reach the 90% (for Auckland this is the Counties-Manukau area).

On Saturday, this area was about 4% behind the average (and 8% below the best performing area), based on figures published in the herald.

If this relationship remains consistent, then to achieve 90% full vaccination rate in this area would mean attaining around 94% average vaccination rate across Auckland I doubt any developed country has achieved 94% full vaccination rate  –  though they all started well before us.

I am also unaware of any country in the world which has set such a high vaccination requirement to end lockdowns. Melbourne and Sydney are moving out of lockdowns at 80% (average).

The vaccination requirement in the roadmap is unlikely to be achievable in any realistic timeframe. In the meantime, more businesses will go under, their owners lose their livelihoods and homes, and their staff their jobs.