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October 16, 2021 11:00am by David Farrar

Cases growing

Have updated the chart to include the new cases.

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Man Among the Ruins

Don’t really care about cases at all. Deaths and even serious illnesses seem conspicuously thin on the ground though. Since these latter metrics are the implicit – and less and less explicitly stated – reasons for our “abundance of caution” approach, can anyone explain what we are doing here? Seems to comprehensively negate the whole argument, doesn’t it?
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October 16, 2021 11:04am
- R
  
  There have been only two deaths – both with pre-existing medical conditions – among the 1855 cases of Delta. I would’ve thought that politicians and health officials would be delighted that the vast majority of people recover from the virus. Curiously, the high recovery rate is seldom mentioned. I guess that might be seen to contradict the hysteria that is so useful in making good decisions.
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:45am
  - krazykiwi
    
    1853 people now have strengthened natural immunity. It would be interesting to see the demographics of the recovered together with months since second vaccination. I don’t expect we will. That would be transparency.
    
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    October 16, 2021 3:31pm
- Tom Hunter
  
  Yep.
  
  Moreover, if this series by DPF turns into “Let’s bash the useless Labour government and National would do it better”, rather than using it to explore the failures of the twin-pronged lockdown-vax strategy, then it will be nothing more than a partisan waste of time.
  
  Right now I’d like to hear ACT or National commit to a full-blown Royal Commission on NZ’s response to Covid-19 because that is looking to the future as well as dissecting the past. I don’t see how it would be partisan since National has been so much a “#MeToo” on these policies and strategies (largely ACT too).
  
  Mind you, given what I just wrote, I could easily see National and ACT wanting to forget this period as much as Labour might, now that Jacinda worshippers are coming off the boil about the success of their Queen. Chris Trotter being a classic example as, once more in his life, he realises that he’s been had:
  
  This is not the Labour Government that New Zealanders flocked to support exactly one year ago this Sunday. That government would never have dreamed of abandoning Auckland to its fate. That Jacinda Ardern told all of us to be kind to one another and gave us her promise to stamp the virus out. She kept her word, and Labour was rewarded with 50.1 percent of the Party Vote.
  
  Where has that Prime Minister gone?
  
  Chuckle. She was always that Prime Minister; you were just too smitten to know it.
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:46am
  - Tony Stuart
    
    Judith Collins called for a Royal Commission some time ago, as did Simon Bridges last year. In hindsight, it was good in a way that Bridges’ suggestion was not taken up, as subsequent events would have completely changed the Terms of Reference and scope of the Inquiry. Personally, I think once New Zealand starts to open up, hopefully early 2022, will be the right time for a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Government’s response to the Covid pandemic. Given this is the single most expensive event in New Zealand’s history, nothing less than a full, independent Royal Commission, with wide Terms of Reference , will suffice.
    
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    October 16, 2021 12:48pm
    - Bob
      
      Don’t hold your breath for a truly Independent Royal Commission.
      COMMUNIST administrations do not tolerate investigation and critical reporting about their activities.
      They have provided the people with a UTOPIAN lifestyle, that should satisfy the unimportant ones.
      
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      October 16, 2021 4:56pm
- David Garrett
  
  Man among: Quite so. What I want to know, in addition to the number hospitalized are: What are the ages of those hospitalized; do they have pre-existing conditions; and are they considered obese or morbidly obese.
  
  Occasionally we get answers to the first two of those – will never get any comment on the third, which from my reading appears to be just as relevant as the first two.
  
  FTR I am now fully vaccinated after considering long and hard whether it was a good idea
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:50am
  - Benedict Yu
    
    And when unvaccinated obese Maori end up in ICU, the Maori Party woman will say it is because they are Maori and we are all racists. Including Chinese people. ?
    
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    October 16, 2021 11:56am
    - Unity
      
      Benedict Yu, don’t forget colonisation!! It’s done such dreadful things to these poor people!!
      
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      October 16, 2021 12:02pm
      - tf78
        
        Unity, so bad that colonists are now well bred into them – that should give them a greater defense against illnesses.
        
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        October 16, 2021 1:35pm
    - David Garrett
      
      Benedict: Yep, it’s all our fault mate.
      
      The thing that irks me the most about the “Maori obesity is our fault” claim is that it’s so clearly bullshit. And it’s NOT about poverty either.
      
      During my marriage I tried to educate some of my Tongan rellies about healthy eating. I showed them that with a tray of neck chops, two spuds, two onions and two carrots – total cost about $12 – my sister in law could feed her family.
      
      But no, they preferred to spend $50 at Maccas instead. Every single one of them, whether born in Tonga or born here – are obese or morbidly obese.
      
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      October 16, 2021 12:22pm
  - R
    
    DG,
    
    Total hospitalised among the 1855 cases of Delata is 173, or 9.3% of cases. Maori and Pacific Islanders make up 146, or 84.4%, of hospitalised cases. Pakeha/European make up 17, or 9.8%, of hospitalised cases. Only 12, or 6.9%, of hospitalised cases are aged under 20.
    
    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics
    
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    October 16, 2021 12:01pm
    - David Garrett
      
      R: Very informative, thank you. Of course the obesity stat isn’t there, but you can infer that from the number of Maori and PI being hospitalized.
      
      Honestly, when I used to go to South Auckland for some Tongan thing or other it was literally like going to another country: more brown faces than white by a large margin; hugely increased percentage of obese and morbidly obese people; lots of Muslims and Sikhs…lots of concrete “lawns”
      
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      October 16, 2021 12:55pm
      - Wayne Mapp
        
        I had a look at the stats in the link. The hospitalisation rate is pretty similar for all ethnicities. A nearly 10% hospitalisation rate is pretty high.
        A good reason to get vaccinated, given just about all the hospitalisations were among the unvaccinated.
        
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        October 16, 2021 5:35pm
    - Warren Murray
      
      Thanks R, I was going to post a Q to DG to ask about the presumed threat that COVID poses to Maori and Pacific peoples because so much noise is being generated about how much more vulnerable they are. I have my doubts about that; I don’t think C-19 discriminates by race. I wonder what proportions of your stats have other health issues and / or have chosen not to be vaccinated?
      
      I contend that age and life choices (including whether to be vaccinated) play a very significant role in health outcomes when a person contracts C 19.
      
      But, in this PC world, would a Royal Commission go there?
      
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      October 16, 2021 3:06pm
      - CherryCat
        
        The high hospitalisation rate may be to do with lack of treatment in NZ but Ardern, Bloomfield et al are blind, deaf and dumb to this.
        
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        October 17, 2021 10:04am
  - Close Hen Counters
    
    David: meth addicts, gangsters, fat, unvaccinated, young adults, poverty, maori/Pacifica and combinations of. But don’t fret we are saved, we have dumbed down the country to such a point where the vaccinated now watch the great unwashed on super Saturday get the jab because free stuff and glorification is on offer – if a hen and distant rooster can get their family vaccinated in a matter of minutes whilst working full time during the lockdown then so can everyone else. Cindy’s marketing people have gone full retard on the herald with five pages of it – well placed photos of the covid crew on the front page, 2/3 more women than men… lots of pink … a propaganda paradise ….
    
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    October 16, 2021 12:30pm
    - whostoblame
      
      And note that every political piece has no comments today. I believe we know why.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:34pm
  - CJames
    
    Unless there has been a big change overnight, it was about 31 in hospital and 7 in ICU. Not that different from summer flu figures. And I suspect none of those were healthy fit people before the got Covid.
    There is nothing to indicate that it is deadly or super infectious, despite all the hype.
    
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    October 16, 2021 12:35pm
    - David Garrett
      
      CJ: I think there is pretty good evidence that it is very transmissible compared with the first one…but the “deadly delta variant” it certainly seems not – unless you are over 65, unvaccinated, and obese and/ or suffer from pre-existing conditions. None of those apply to me, and I am genuinely quite unconcerned about it.
      
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      October 16, 2021 12:41pm
    - ClanMcleod
      
      The scam is being revealed in front of your eyes. This “vaxathon” may be the final knife in the ribs for this fiasco. It was ALWAYS a fiasco. It just took a useful idiot like Ardern to expose it for what it is. The Empress is naked and it is not very pretty to behold. It never was.
      National, here is your chance, but you need to be bold and you need to be logical and you need to get rid of the useful idiots, modelers and yes men/women who have been pushing this insanity for 18 months. Michael Baker should be in custody awaiting trial. Most of the others also. Hendy, Wiles, Plank, Wilson. Incredible.
      
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      October 16, 2021 1:57pm
      - artemisia
        
        Never interrupt the enemy ….
        
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        October 16, 2021 5:35pm
      - Ian Boag
        
        Michael Baker should be in custody awaiting trial. Most of the others also. Hendy, Wiles, Plank, Wilson. Incredible.
        
        Good on yer ClanMac. Betcha you have better qualifications and more knowledge than any/all of these folk.
        
        Perhaps you could share with us what makes you so knowledgeable? Common sense and school of life … ?
        
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        October 16, 2021 9:16pm
- Benedict Yu
  
  As the cases climb into the thousands, and they will, so will hospitalisations and deaths. The thing has not even started.
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:54am
  - Man Among the Ruins
    
    Even if that prediction wasn’t just pure speculation, so what? You and anyone else who have received their shots shouldn’t have any concern, should you? Unless of course you know the vaccine is ineffectual, in which case that’s a good reason for me to refuse it.
    
    Life is risky, sometimes very much so. I disagree with the fundamental premise that the state must protect my health (or so they claim) at any cost. There is no impediment whatsoever stopping those who so choose to act as if they were being individually dictated to by the government, as we are all now universally. None.
    
    It would take a great deal of carnage to convince me that giving up our human rights (to never get them back fully intact) is worth it. Moreover, I’d have skin in the game: as someone who refuses vaccination, I am perfectly happy putting my money where my mouth is. You can, however, take whatever precaution you choose.
    
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    October 16, 2021 12:07pm
    - David Garrett
      
      Man among: Spoken like a true libertarian Sir! And good on you…you should indeed be allowed to make your own choices just as I made mine.
      
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      October 16, 2021 1:22pm
      - Man Among the Ruins
        
        While I normally cross the road when I suspect a libertarian is bearing down on me, I still reserve my right to act in my own interests and preserve my rights, at least to the extent that I know I am not endangering others. This is one such instance.
        
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        October 16, 2021 1:39pm
    - Benedict Yu
      
      “Even if that prediction wasn’t just pure speculation, so what? You and anyone else who have received their shots shouldn’t have any concern, should you?”
      
      It is not pure speculation. It is based on good global data. That data is an excellent predictor of what is about to happen here.
      
      And no, I have no concern at all. If I was not vaccinated, I would be very concerned.
      
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      October 16, 2021 1:43pm
      - Ian Boag
        
        @Phil
        
        I wonder sometimes if you have a day job or take time out on weekends.
        
        I rest my counter-predictions
        
        Perhaps you could impress us with your qualifications. They must be many …
        
        I don’t know what “epidemiologists” spend years studying to get their qualification,
        
        We don’t know what you spent years studying either ….
        
        I can reiterate if you want.
        
        Again? Your analysis has such depth and veracity that it should be exposed somewhere more significant that a minor right wing chanting circle ….
        
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        December 16, 2020 9:24pm
      - PhilBest
        
        “…It is not pure speculation. It is based on good global data. That data is an excellent predictor of what is about to happen here…”
        
        No, Benedict. It is not. That is exactly where I rest my counter-predictions.
        
        I was saying this a year and a half ago, and I stand by it more than ever now with all the evidence since. My favorite quote on the subject was this early William Briggs one:
        
        https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/05/general_debate_16_may_2020.html#comment-2716049
        
        “…The only evidence for lockdowns is the desire that lockdowns worked. That, and the embarrassment (and worse) in admitting to error. What politician anywhere will cop to ruining their economy and the lives of millions of their citizens? Who can say “Ah, it was only a few trillion”? This will not happen. It just won’t. All politicians will go on repeating that their lockdowns “saved lives”…
        
        “…There is a distinct tendency, at least in the Western media, to ascribe merit and blame for every event to people. What egos we all have!
        
        In the US it went like this. The virus was caused or exacerbated by the political party I disfavor. If persons in the party I favored were listened to, this would not have been as big a crisis. The virus spread so rapidly because of the actions of the party I disfavor. The party I favor helped stem the tide and saved lives. The crisis would have ended sooner, and more lives would have been saved, if the people in the party I hate were ignored. Science saved us!
        
        Nature gets no credit. Not for the creation of the virus, not for its highly variable spread, not for its highly variable infection rate, and certainly not for its hugely variable deaths caused. All those things were believed to be the responsibility of people. Nature has no real power, we think. It can be controlled to any degree of precision desired, if only we can muster sufficient political will and suppress our enemies…”
        
        By the time we had all the data in from our first wave, of March to April 2020 before we “eliminated”, it was obvious that our fatality rate was going to be WELL BELOW places like Bergamo, New York, London, Barcelona, etc. The idiot mass assumed that “Jacinda’s lockdown saved us” when in fact, in week 4 of lockdown and still having one Covid death here, two there, days with none – meant the lockdown was UNNECESSARY. Those deaths were the deaths we were going to have WITHOUT LOCKDOWN.
        
        By the time the science had told us that we had around twice as much antibodies positives as we “should have”, AND that you need to multiply known antibodies rates by around 3 to account for the immunities gained without antibodies development (mostly T cells), we could work out an IFR for NZ of around 0.05%.
        
        I don’t know what “epidemiologists” spend years studying to get their qualification, if natural and environmental inputs are NOT included in it. I have discussed these inputs in the context of NZ versus worst-cases like Bergamo, at length elsewhere. I can reiterate if you want.
        
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        October 16, 2021 3:50pm
      - ClanMcleod
        
        Only time will answer your last point. The data from around the world is starting to cause concern. Specifically when you look at highly vaccinated countries like Israel, Gibraltar, Iceland, Singapore etc. Highly qualified people have said that vaccinating during a pandemic could cause breakout and mutations and that seems to be happening.
        I predict a dire winter for NZ next year for many reasons including normal illnesses that we’ve avoided due to hiding under the bed for 2 years. All of the negatives of lockdowns that were well warned about are going to come true. There will be many more deaths from the impact of the government policy than could ever have died from covid.
        I understand they were operating based on the data from the modelers. We now know that data was completely off the scale wrong, but Ardern is still following the advice of the same core group of fear mongering career academics. As each week passes the advice of Simon Thornley and the others at Covid Plan B is showing to be very close to what they predicted whereas the dire warnings of Hendy and Baker et al is shown to be utterly ludicrous.
        Let’s pray that VAED does not occur or the numbers next winter could be horrendous.
        
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        October 18, 2021 8:59am
    - ronsegal
      
      So MAtR if/when you get sick, if it is bad, will you also take your chances without taking up a hospital bed?
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:30pm
      - CherryCat
        
        Why should he? Lack of treatment in NZ is probably the main cause of hospitalisation. There are doctors around the world who have treated thousands of sick covid patients, they have established protocols and they work. Real patients, in numbers far outweighing NZ’s asymptotic cases. You should be asking why Bloomfield, Ardern et al are incapable of learning from their experience instead continuing to deny NZ patients safe, effective treatment. Even that most political of bodies, WHO, agrees.
        
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        October 17, 2021 10:14am
      - ClanMcleod
        
        I would if I have to, but while you deny me medical treatment first ensure that anyone requiring medical treatment for any condition has to endure a thorough examination of all of their lifestyle choices. We can’t have people in hospitals for things that could have been easily avoided by taking appropriate action surely? Just get the jab? Don’t play contact sport? Don’t climb a mountain? Don’t eat crap food? Don’t drink alcohol? I could go on and on and on and on but I’m sure you get the picture.
        
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        October 18, 2021 9:04am
  - Albert_Ross
    
    Really? Even the most pessimistic of Government modeling doesn’t show that, and for the most part we’ve dismissed Government modeling as alarmist, scaremongering nonsense.
    
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    October 16, 2021 12:33pm
    - Benedict Yu
      
      What do you mean “really”? Of course the cases will climb into the thousands, and then the millions over the next few years. What are you expecting?
      
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      October 16, 2021 1:44pm
      - Albert_Ross
        
        Cases, yes. Hospitalisations and deaths, no.
        
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        October 16, 2021 3:11pm
  - PhilBest
    
    I’m still taking the opposite position, Benedict. I wouldn’t be so strong if we were coming into Autumn and Winter right now – but we are coming into “peak nature virus elimination” season. And this is on top of NZ’s world-leading natural advantages.
    
    I calculated from our original outbreak in 2020, using the Waikato Uni’s study that determined that there was around twice as much Covid antibodies in donated blood as there should be, and multiplying by the factor that only 1/3 of Covid infections even progress to antibody development stage, that NZ probably had 10,000 Covid infections to go with its 23 deaths.
    
    That means an IFR around 0.23%.
    
    Now it happens that Delta shows up from British data, to be around 1/5 as deadly as the original variants. It is a lot more transmissable, so maybe it infects 5 times as many people and hence ends up killing around the same number. But meanwhile the sheer numbers of infected, compared to the original strains, means herd immunity is converged on at a much more rapid rate.
    
    So we could estimate that Delta might have an IFR IN NZ of around 0.05%, and we might still be missing something like half of the true infections, especially if the communities where spread is happening, are reluctant to even report for testing.
    
    We’ve had two deaths out of 1855 known infections. That is an IFR of a fraction over 0.1% – if we assume there are twice as many true infections, that brings us back to my 0.05%.
    
    That means we might incur 2,000 “Covid deaths” in the course of 4 million Kiwis becoming truly infected, of which probably 2 million will be missed by testing.
    
    Of course this thing is still in progress and deaths will lag infections. If there ends up being four deaths from the 1855 known infections, my figures would have to be doubled; but known infections may mount up fast enough to keep the IFR down around where I suggest.
    
    I would say that 2,000 “Covid deaths” spread out over at least a couple of years from now, in the context of 32,000 Kiwis dying each year, of which 16,000+ are over 80, would not be a catastrophe that justifies the abandonment of life as we knew it. I would also bet that the excess mortality will not be “linearly higher by means of Covid deaths” – it may well have some spikes from all causes of mortality because a year or more of low mortality meanwhile has left a lot of “dry tinder”, most of which will die anyway of something other than Covid.
    
    Of course it is up to the veracity of our official mortality statisticians, what they deem to be “Covid deaths”.
    
    I have stated the proviso before and will state it again: we COULD engineer some Rest Home tragedies by deliberately ignoring the crucial role of fresh air and ventilation and “outdoors time”. The Rest Home toll in Bergamo and Britain and New York in the first half of 2020 could be excused as due to “mistakes” and lack of knowledge at the time, but if NZ gets into anything like this, well over a year later with all the knowledge we have now, THAT is NOT gonna be “the fault of anti-vaxxers and lockdown scofflaws”.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:18pm
    - Man Among the Ruins
      
      Increasing instances of the word ‘scofflaw’ alone is worth flouting the authoritarian rules.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:23pm
    - whostoblame
      
      In other words 500-600 deaths per year the equivalent of influenza. A tenth of all smoking related illnesses which are preventable with no vaccine. And, a sixth of all alchohol related deaths also preventable. Right, I’d better race to town now and get my shot unless I die in a car accident on the way which is nearly as probable but after 56 years of driving I’m prepared to risk it for this special occasion.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:51pm
    - dannz
      
      I think you’re saying broadly the same thing as Benedict.
      
      I agree with your approximation of deaths, 2000-4000 allowing for our expected vaccination levels. I’d say 80% of those deaths will be in the 20% unvaccinated.
      
      Along with those deaths we will have about 30,000 hospitalisations/serious illness.
      
      That looks awfully like thousands of hospitalisations and deaths if you ask me?
      
      Given we are a mostly naive population I think it will mostly happen over a 3-6 month spike before settling down to a new baseline.
      
      So yes, we will have thousands of hospitalisations, and yes it’s not the black plague.
      
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      October 16, 2021 4:04pm
  - ClanMcleod
    
    You have no idea about that. Certainly if you are basing your thoughts on what happened in the UK and the US. They were utter basket cases who did everything possible wrong. We have much more information now. We know how to treat this seasonal respiratory illness. Protect the vulnerable. We have close to 80% vaccinated. You are a fan of that. Of the rest we know that 99.85% will recover fine. There may be thousands of cases. There may be some deaths. The overreaction to this is on an unprecedented scale in the history of humanity.
    What is your alternative? Lockdown until we force everyone in the country to either give up their job or succumb to a medical intervention they don’t want because there is absolutely no long term data around the impacts it might have?
    This is not and never was the plague. It is a disease not unlike many other diseases that kill people. If you want to live in a sterile bubble go for it. But don’t tell me I have to do the same to protect you. Apparently your vaccine does that so you should be fine. If it doesn’t then what’s the point in taking it? It’s a simple yes or no answer.
    
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    October 16, 2021 2:04pm
    - Fight4NZ
      
      There is more data on the safety/risk of this treatment than nearly any other medical intervention, as you like to call it, ever. Billions of doses given with infinitesimal numbers of serious issues resulting.
      The lifetime of the vaccine, like all vaccines, is a few weeks at most. To talk about lack of long term data is meaningless.
      Simple answer, yes, every decision to have or refuse vaccination has ramifications for everyone. There is no such thing as individualism in these circumstances, only self-centeredness.
      
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      October 16, 2021 3:00pm
      - krazykiwi
        
        Billions of doses.
        
        Sure.
        
        Now show me the longitudinal safety and efficacy data.
        
        Just when you’re ready.
        
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        October 16, 2021 9:31pm
  - Surely Knott
    
    I have to disagree. Australia’s Mortality Statistics in their August outbreak show their deadliest covid week coincided with a massive drop in other types of respiratory deaths. Overall during their august outbreak, respiratory deaths were still less than the 2015-2019 average.
    
    August 15 2020 The Guardian reported “Yet again, Australia has had its deadliest day during the pandemic, with Victoria recording 25 deaths overnight. The total death toll is now over 400” Alarming.
    
    But for the week ending 16 August OZ mortality stats report 135 total Covid deaths + 241 Respiratory deaths + 59 Flu/Pneumonia Deaths. Total Respiratory deaths for the week = 435
    
    Average Expected Respiratory deaths 2015-2019 for week 16 August
    Flu/Pneumonia 111+ Respiratory Deaths 374 = Total Expected Respiratory Deaths 485.
    
    The trend is the same for all the weeks during their August outbreak. The much hyped covid deaths did not equal additional respiratory deaths. Their were less respiratory deaths than usual.
    
    The time when they did have high respiratory deaths was Jan Feb (no outbreaks) and March 2020 which all corresponded with the historical bush fires.
    
    It will be interesting to see what the data when they finish this outbreak. Are we seeing more respiratory deaths or are those deaths now just covid instead of pneumonia. But the deaths on worldometer do not look higher than august outbreak. And August outbreak was not an increase in respiratory deaths overall.
    
    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release#australian-deaths-by-week-30-december-2019-to-27-june-2021
    
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    October 16, 2021 2:21pm
    - PhilBest
      
      Excellent, thanks, Surely Knott.
      
      If there were honest and principled politicians over there, this is what they would be ramming home in every public breifing. Similar data could have been used virtually everywhere in the world. Margaret Thatcher would have done it, told everyone to harden up, take Vitamin D and behave sensibly. Quite possibly even David Lange would have done the same. There has been a precipitous collapse in the quality of politicians worldwide in the last couple of decades.
      
      Some of the clearest people alive in NZ now are old former Lange Cabinet members like Prebble, Bassett and Terris. Even the patron saint of Kiwiblog and National, Sir John Key, is no comparison.
      
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      October 16, 2021 3:56pm
    - Cinematic
      
      Naughty! You provided balance. Balance has been banned. Balance is now illegal.
      
      Worse still you provided perspective. Perspective is even more banned than balance. Extremely naughty.
      
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      October 16, 2021 4:07pm
- UrbanNeocolonialist
  
  deaths lag cases by 2-4weeks. The uptick will come. Good chance we will eventually reach 5-10000 cases a day, 100x current numbers, if other well vaxxed counties are a guide.
  
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  October 16, 2021 12:26pm
  - PhilBest
    
    So can everybody please be clear that in Lockdown 1, in the first half of 2020, lockdown did NOT “save us from exponentially increasing deaths”? there was nothing there anyway; the deaths we had were the deaths we were gonna have with NO lockdown.
    
    If there had been anything like a Bergamo or NY scenario to avert, we’d have reached several hundred deaths by around week 5 of lockdown, with some dozens per day; and THEN the rate would have started to fall “because the lockdown started to work”.
    
    But going by personal experience, NO Jacinda-voting woman will EVER admit this; and most of the Jacinda-voting men won’t either. Even among the non-Jacinda voters who nevertheless were quite happy that their National or NZ First representatives went along with the deception, only around 50% might finally admit it after patient explanation.
    
    WTF is wrong with everyone’s basic logic?
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:27pm
    - ClanMcleod
      
      NZ is going to be smashed with excess death next winter. Apparently flu vanished last year. All due to lockdown, sanitising and social distancing. That makes 500 people who will be “dry tinder” for this winter. Then there will be the usual 500 deaths from flu/covid. Or we could lock down again. Destroy more of the economy and some people might live for an extra month or two. The insanity of this period in history will be studied by future generations in a state of total disbelief. I cannot believe fellow human beings have been hypnotised by this madness.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:08pm
      - whostoblame
        
        I’m still waiting for the y2k bug. America’s congress told us it would be crushing.
        
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        October 16, 2021 3:31pm
      - PhilBest
        
        Yes, I put a bit of a proviso like that into my longer prediction about excess mortality. Problem is that excess deaths can be used to say “Covid dunnit”.
        
        RSV is one of the diseases that comes roaring through children as well as the elderly, as a result of immune deficit. Except that NZ was almost unique in actually calling it RSV. Everywhere else it was “Covid”. One of those eight doctors in the long discussion I linked to, said his clinic eventually bought their own $800,000 PCR test machine and quantified a true split of 20% Covid, 80% “other respiratory diseases”.
        
        In NZ a few months ago we were “Covid free” so we couldn’t call RSV “Covid”.
        
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        October 16, 2021 4:11pm
    - Fight4NZ
      
      “ the deaths we had were the deaths we were gonna have with NO lockdown.”
      Where do you come up with this drivel? Got to hand it to you though you really commit. The conviction you deliver the litany of fabrications and disinformation is breathtaking.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:11pm
      - PhilBest
        
        You just can’t follow the logic, that’s all. There are seven figure numbers of people like you in NZ, that is the problem. If we were going to be anything like Bergamo, from the point at which we had “one death”, we would need to have had one or two per day at least for a few days; then at least ten+ per day, ramping up to tens per day; adding up to several hundred by the time the lockdown “started to show its effect” – seeing deaths lag infections by several weeks. The fact that this didn’t happen, and also the fact that we can calculate now from known infections in that first wave, and science since, that NZ has an IFR around 0.05%.
        
        It is YOUR conviction in scoffing at basic logic that is misplaced. Also your conviction that natural and environmental factors can’t possibly have anything to do with a respiratory virus’s transmissability or deadliness.
        
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        October 16, 2021 4:02pm
    - Man Among the Ruins
      
      If we want to get really big picture and hyper-rational, I’d like someone to give us an historical example of a case wherein a disease’s population reduction was not a net positive. Like a forest fire clearing away the built-up matter that has already contributed its share to the forest as a whole, the natural aftermath is invariably a new and fertile ground from which abundance can spring forth. On this premise, the actions “we” have taken go against the principles of nature, and, as unswerving reverents of “the science” they should have recognised the nature-denying character of their authoritarian overreach.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:30pm
      - Man Among the Ruins
        
        I ran out of time to edit, but, a good example is the Black Death which, due to the labour shortage in brought in, effectively ended serfdom.
        
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        October 16, 2021 2:38pm
      - Fight4NZ
        
        This to me is the real argument. Have the lockdown states actually missed an opportunity? Today’s society continually allows the unfit to survive based on “kindness”, but ultimately drags itself down by doing so. On this basis Sweden was right.
        The nonsense, jumbled logic and pure speculation on lockdown and vaccine effectiveness are a waste of time. Lockdowns reduced loss of life . Vaccination will do likewise if you are among the fit who get one.
        
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        October 16, 2021 9:21pm
    - whostoblame
      
      Jacindaitis.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:57pm
  - tf78
    
    UC – I read news from Taiwan this morning, deaths from the vaccinated are now out numbering deaths from the unvaccinated 865/845.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:45pm
    - bennerg
      
      Given that the Pfizer product does not stop one getting nor transmitting the virus, and maybe (yet to see peer reviewed, double blind research) only mitigates the effect, then maybe the word vaccine has been inappropriately assigned to it, and maybe we should be referring it to as just a “palliative care” option.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:29pm
  - Benedict Yu
    
    About 4 weeks. So if cases start climbing into the thousands in December, expect to see hospitals full of very ill unvaccinated people – many of them obese – in January onwards.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:46pm
    - PhilBest
      
      Benedict, Benedict, Benedict. Covid, even Delta Covid, takes a break in summer, even in the colder higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The WHO has got virtually every pronouncement on Covid wrong. If you believe “Covid is not seasonal”, why don’t you also still believe “no evidence of human to human transmission”?
      
      There is also “Covid is not airborne”, which clearly Bloomfield, Wiles and Hendy at least, don’t want us to know the truth of. That is probably the worst of the WHO “errors”.
      
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      October 16, 2021 4:06pm
- JackRabbit
  
  Thanks for this post David.
  
  However the graph highlights the danger of taking data out of context.
  
  If X% of people test positive, irrespective of being asymptomatic or symptomatic, then if you increase the number tested, then the number of “infections” will also increase at the same rate.
  
  The number of “infections” in this graph correlates heavily with the number of Covid-19 tests and for all intense purposes both the graph above and the testing graph below are in step with each other.
  
  https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-tests-per-thousand-people-smoothed-7-day?tab=chart&time=2021-08-23..latest&country=~NZL
  
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  October 16, 2021 2:23pm
  - JackRabbit
    
    In addition:
    
    [1] New cases since the beginning of the pandemic:
    https://tinyurl.com/r8ve2sxa
    
    [2] Deaths since the beginning of the pandemic:
    https://tinyurl.com/3btpvcsf
    
    These two graphs show that while cases are up again, deaths are not following the number of cases, indicating that Covid-19 has become impotent.
    
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    October 16, 2021 2:45pm
  - krazykiwi
    
    Precisely. It’s like being in an 18-month time warp. These were the very charts wheeled out in Europe & USA in an attempt, successful as it turned out, to fan the panic porn bonfire into flame.
    
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    October 16, 2021 3:46pm
- Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
  
  any chance the number of recovered cases etc published ? of course not.
  as vaccinated numbers increase so will delta cases here, just like every other country.
  
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  October 16, 2021 3:42pm
  - CherryCat
    
    One of the problems, Old Blue Eyes, is how many of these cases were ever sick. Only with Covid can you recover from something you never had.
    
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    October 17, 2021 10:31am
- Old.Mickey.Blue.Eyes
  
  https://fee.org/articles/vaccination-rates-not-linked-to-lower-covid-rates-epidemiology-paper-finds maybe some actual, researched data could help?
  
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  October 17, 2021 8:56am
Albert_Ross

What are you trying to do here, DPF? Do you want the Government to put us all back into level 4?

Please, please, please include the number of hpospitalisations and deaths in these charts. That’s what actually matters, for that is what provides an indication of how great a public policy problem covid actually now is.
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October 16, 2021 11:05am
Dave Winefield

So What?? Are these cases those of unvaccinated people? Or are they the vaccinated? The former may need hospitalisation, the latter should not – if what we have been told about the vaccine is accurate. I have had both doses, and am awaiting the Booster when and if Auntie gets off her posterior. But graphs like this are useless, and only feed the idiots like pencil neck and his statistic obsessed university mates.
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October 16, 2021 11:10am
- Liberal Cliche
  
  Occams razor
  
  If the cases were unvaccinated it would be plastered all over every media sites front page. You know this.
  
  The media had no problem in the early cases saying “Unvaccinated man with covid hospitalized” That has now completely disappeared.
  
  They will never release the stats.
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:46am
  - Man Among the Ruins
    
    Spot on. They have acted in bad faith throughout, constantly focussing on and exaggerating anything they can use to stoke fear, while studiously ignoring any positives (e.g. the near universal full recoveries). We know why they don’t focus on good news – good news isn’t conducive to sustaining irrational fear.
    
    As you rightly point out, they’d have jumped on any morsel they could have to hold up the unvaxxed in a bad light. Conversely, they’d also have promoted the lack of cases among the vaccinated – if that were the case. Because they are not doing the latter, it’s safe to infer that the vaxxed are being infected as much, if not more, than us pure bloods.
    
    If they had anything resembling a rational argument for vaccination, they wouldn’t need the blatant PR campaign and social pressure we are being subjected to.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:26pm
    - Fight4NZ
      
      Or rational argument has been provided endlessly and at length. But there truly is none so blind as those who will not see.
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:15pm
      - Man Among the Ruins
        
        The floor is yours then: what is the rational argument? It should be very easy for you to reiterate it here.
        
        I say that, because real-world experience has shown that there is no evidence of any lasting inoculation derived from the mRNA vaccines (I cite the stated need for booster shots as evidence) – and therefore, erecting a barrier against infection, transmission, hospitalisation and death will not eventuate as a consequence of vaccination per se, as well as high community rates thereof – there is no rational case in favour of vaccination versus remaining unvaccinated.
        
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        October 16, 2021 3:06pm
      - Fight4NZ
        
        As just stated the facts have been spelled out repeatedly and I really can’t be bothered repeating. Now just calling bs, like the falsehood that there is no evidence of lasting inoculation from the vaccines because of boosters. Simply experience and data informing the most effective treatment regimen for a new treatment. Nothing more, nothing less right now.
        Why you think that mRNA is relevant to raise at every opportunity is beyond me? Sounds vaguely scary to some I guess so some sort of fear porn tactic?
        
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        October 16, 2021 10:29pm
gardenofearthlydelights

If we didn’t have the PCR test, Wifi, Zoom, and cosy houses to sit smugly in, we wouldn’t have had a pandemic.
There would just be a rather bad cold going around.
This is just more meaningless Covid-19 porn.
Let open up and live each day like it’s our last. Lets go to festivals, let’s travel, let’s see each other. Fear has to end.
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October 16, 2021 11:15am
- surfing
  
  You say zoom, wifi, and PCR tests caused the pandemic?
  
  Very confusing.
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:42am
- septic skeptic
  
  That works for me. I’m as ready for Covid now as I will ever be, barring some new vax coming online.
  
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  October 16, 2021 11:50am
Inandout

Stands to reason that the more you scratch around the more you find.
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October 16, 2021 11:17am
BananaLlama

On the second day of Christmas Labour gave to me, Covid and a Bankruptcy.
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October 16, 2021 11:32am
G152

Cindy doesn’t understand what the word ‘epidemic’ stands for evidently.
Didn’t ‘plan’ for a rise in numbers
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October 16, 2021 11:33am
Frank the tank

Case numbers will explode when the clownshow is forced to ditch MIQ for Kungflu cases. In the interim let’s get ready for history’s greatest shitshow – The Vaxxathon.
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October 16, 2021 11:35am
gorse

Covid by Christmas, or perhaps Labour weekend. Who is going to email Robertson and Hipkins to stick that up them?
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October 16, 2021 11:38am
Lance

So the govt is all shock and horror at rising covid 19 cases after they stuck multiple MIQ’s in the centre of our most densely populated city.

Hello, morons.
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October 16, 2021 11:41am
Aquataur

If anyone wanted to see the effect of the mass hysteria and mass psychosis over Covid, this from RNZ captures it perfectly

“A crew member on the Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Kaha has tested positive for Covid-19.

The positive test result was returned during routine testing of the ship’s crew after a port visit to Guam, the Defence Force said in a statement.

The sailor, who is asymptomatic, is receiving medical advice and support, and is in isolation on the ship. All other crew members have returned negative tests.

The 174 crew members on board the ship are vaccinated.

The Defence Force statement said several measures were being carried out to prevent potential transmission of the virus, including anti-viral cleaning of the ship, hand sanitising, wearing face masks and physical distancing.

Movements on board have been restricted, and all crew members are also having daily health screening and temperature checks.”

WTF
A vaccinated asymptomatic sailor gets a positive result, all his crew mates are vaccinated and the Navy panics, deep cleans the ship and puts everyone into restrictions.

Doesn’t sound like life as normal once we are all vaccinated !

His, and his crewmates risk are no more than the flu, and instead of being put in the sick bay, we get this massive over-reaction
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October 16, 2021 11:43am
- Benedict Yu
  
  Agree – idiotic.
  
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  October 16, 2021 1:47pm
- PhilBest
  
  Absolute idiocy, given that we now know aerosol buildup indoors is the main problem.
  
  https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4#:~:text=spreads%20through%20surfaces.-,So%20why%20are%20we%20still%20deep%20cleaning%3F,a%20major%20source%20of%20infection.
  
  COVID-19 rarely spreads through surfaces. So why are we still deep cleaning?
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:13pm
- Bob
  
  No Aquataur…
  the NZ health authorities panaiced, the Navy followed govt. orders. ARDERN is terrified that the Te Kaha may bring Covid 19 to NZ.
  What’s that?? covid is already in NZ, oh dear.
  
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  October 16, 2021 5:01pm
- David Garrett
  
  The most relevant fact in that particular piece of fear porn is this:
  
  “The sailor, who is asymptomatic, …”
  
  as of course you would expect, since he is vaccinated, and young, fit, and otherwise healthy.
  
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  October 16, 2021 6:55pm
Colville

I wonder how many fingernails would need to be extracted before Jacinda would admit that they have lost control?
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October 16, 2021 11:45am
lazza

With all these KB diehard laissez faire libertarian comments … now watch the U curve “go vertical” … then! … maybe reflect and revise your irresponsible “Alarmist” scepticism.

Signed: 77 yr old medically challenged vulnerable White Male.
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October 16, 2021 11:46am
- Okahu
  
  Nice one Lanza. The heroic indifference of those who expect no significant negative outcome to those who do should be seen as a declaration. A declaration of arseholedom. Or fuckwitdom.
  
  Sincerely, thankyou for posting that the truth that quite a few of this very KB community will be vulnerable to this thing. They do not need to be told by the aresholes and fuckwits that they have succumbed to fear porn. That they are bewitched by the Princess. That they can be saved with some bizarre application of a non tested drug.
  
  Best of luck old chap. And to those others who are vulnearable to this thing don’t be bullied by the loud but empty protestations of tyranny and conspiracy these threads fill with.
  
  This may be your last chance to say your piece in defiance of the callous and the nasty who roam here denigrating public health measures and community observance of such. As for the anti-vaxers who simultaneously imagine themselves victims while creating the environment to make actual real people who live and love the victims of their indeffernce…may the despicable cretins drown in a sewer.
  
  Happy Vac a Nation Day people!
  
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  October 16, 2021 1:44pm
  - Benedict Yu
    
    mmm. well I try to be more polite than that, but sometimes I fail.
    
    I would be surprised if a majority of regular readers of Kiwiblog are antivaxxers. There are clearly a handful of regular commentators that are antivaxxers. This is nothing new – they have been around since the 1980s.
    
    The vaccination rate will creep up. Some will see friends and relatives become seriously ill and change their minds. Others will give up because the can’t eat out, go to the rugby, travel or simply join in family celebrations.
    
    Everyone makes their choices. Including Maori. Which is why I have totally lost all time for that Maori Party woman, whose name I can never remember.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:52pm
    - Inandout
      
      BY, agree with most of what you say except you omit the constant boosters needed to keep the ‘passports’ valid. Now what hope do you have that this assembly of clowns we call the government will get that right? I do have some sympathy with the door keepers at the venues you mention, especially when confronted by a group of mean looking ‘special people’. It will be a case of ‘OK bros, you can go in’.
      
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      October 16, 2021 3:09pm
  - PhilBest
    
    Okahu: people need to follow the science, not the incompetent and lying officials, if they want to actually protect themselves from Covid.
    
    “The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill”
    by Megan Molteni in “Wired” Magazine, May 2021
    
    https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/
    
    “The Carpenters of the WHO”
    
    By Maurice De Hond 19 July 2020
    
    “We Need to Talk About Ventilation”
    
    By Zeynep Tufekci 31 July, 2020
    
    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/why-arent-we-talking-more-about-airborne-transmission/614737/
    
    CFNU research summary on COVID-19 – Updated July 23, 2021
    https://nursesunions.ca/cfnu-research-summary-on-covid-19/
    
    Breakthrough infections are occurring in vaccinated people who don’t have the proper advice even yet. It is a question to what extent vaccination does actually address real risk, the vaccines trials made no attempt to quantify this.
    
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    October 16, 2021 4:19pm
Benedict Yu

Honestly the case numbers will soon get so large nobody will care. At a minimum I want to see daily data on hospitalizations, those in ICU, those on ventilators, and deaths, by age group and by vaccination status..

Australia publishes this data daily.
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October 16, 2021 12:00pm
- Bob
  
  Such published data will not occur in NZ.
  It does not suit the AGENDA nor narrative of ARDERN and her sycophants.
  
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  October 16, 2021 12:08pm
- Cinematic
  
  Do you want to see daily data on cancer hospitalisation etc? What possible difference will this data make to your life?
  
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  October 16, 2021 12:14pm
  - ronsegal
    
    Cancer isn’t locking down NZ.
    
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    October 16, 2021 2:34pm
- Albert_Ross
  
  Showing that Australia, a country with about five times New Zealand’s population, comparable vaccination rates, and well ahead of us on the progress of its outbreak – currently has about 1400 people in hospital and has seen about 1500 deaths.
  
  Not seeing the basis of your prognostication that we’re going to see thousands of hospitalizations and deaths here.
  
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  October 16, 2021 12:42pm
  - Benedict Yu
    
    Where did I say we would have “thousands of deaths”? We will have tens, and then hundreds of thousands of cases. Then millions of cases.
    
    So over the next few years many thousands of the unvaccinated will end up in hospital and hundreds will die.
    
    I am not seeing anything controversial in that statement.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:55pm
    - Taieri
      
      Then millions of cases.
      ————–
      
      Uff! 10 million? 20 million?
      
      Usually, you are quite rational. Quit those bacon sandwiches…
      
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      October 16, 2021 2:08pm
      - Benedict Yu
        
        No 5 million. Or close to it. How are you planning on not getting infected?
        
        I ended up having a toasted ham cheese and tomato sandwich ?
        
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        October 16, 2021 4:59pm
      - Taieri
        
        No 5 million. Or close to it. How are you planning on not getting infected?
        —————
        
        Not planning anything as it doesn’t depend on my planning or the lack of it.
        But…I’ll give you an example. Of Denmark, a country somewhat comparable to NZ in terms of population (5.8 m) although not its density. According to worldometers they had around 367K “cases”, which is approx. 6.3% of the total population. Each and everyone, average, statistical Dane has been tested 14.5 times (!) so we can safely assume that no potential Covid-infection could have been missed. There’s no reason why NZ, with its low number of “cases”, wide vaccination coverage and benign climate should do any worse. So, where are your millions going to come from Benedict?
        
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        October 16, 2021 5:15pm
      - Fight4NZ
        
        So Denmark is now Covid free? In this case the vaccines have done an excellent job.
        
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        October 16, 2021 9:36pm
    - Albert_Ross
      
      You said at 11:54 above
      
      As the cases climb into the thousands, and they will, so will hospitalisations and deaths. The thing has not even started.
      
      Government worst-case modelling has cases peaking at about 5300 per week next year, of which 0.2 – 0.4% (about 20/week) would require ICU, and about 5% (about 250/week) would need hospital care. What of this do you think unduly optimistic, and on what basis?
      
      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/14/new-zealand-modelling-shows-covid-cases-could-peak-at-5300-a-week-in-auckland-next-year
      
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      October 16, 2021 3:24pm
    - PhilBest
      
      Over the next few years in NZ, around 32,000 people per year will die, more than 16,000 of them over 80. The numbers will fluctuate a bit, and will probably be higher shortly because 2020 was a low-mortality year.
      
      The deaths are unevenly spread through the year; there is around 500 too many from June to September, and 500 less in the other 2/3 of the year. This is called “the flu season”.
      
      I actually commend your restraint in saying “hundreds will die of Covid” over the next few years! That might make Covid go as high as around the 10th highest cause of death over that period, although it might be more honest to just put it in with “respiratory illness, all”. And I doubt that it would be noticeable on smoothed, age-adjusted excess mortality graphs. Someone needs to run this exercise for NZ:
      
      https://mises.org/wire/age-adjusted-mortality-2004-levels-yet-they-tell-us-covid-worse-1918-flu
      
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      October 16, 2021 4:27pm
      - Benedict Yu
        
        I agree. COVID wikl end up being a minor problem. The next couple of years could be tough.
        
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        October 16, 2021 5:23pm
- bronny1
  
  Yes. And IF this data overwhelmingly shows deaths and hospitalisations among healthy young and Middle Aged unvaxxed, undecided people might decide to get vaxxed.
  
  So my suspicion is that if they don’t share the data it is because it doesn’t fit the narrative. There isn’t much data yet of course but true longer they don’t give it to us, the longer people will hold out
  
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  October 16, 2021 12:43pm
  - Benedict Yu
    
    You can see the death and illness profiles in the UK and USA. New Zealand will be no different. Age is the biggest predictor. But if you are (say) 50 and obese, and unvaccinated, you are making a seriously bad decision. If you are 20 or 30 and healthy, you are very unlikely to be seriously ill.
    
    My point is we do not need to guess what is about to happen. It is predictable.
    
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    October 16, 2021 1:58pm
    - PhilBest
      
      Yes, only not in the way you are arguing. NZ is a far cry from Bergamo, NYC, London or Barcelona.
      
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      October 16, 2021 4:28pm
      - Benedict Yu
        
        Really? How are we different to South Dakota, Portugal, or Brazil?
        
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        October 16, 2021 6:35pm
      - krazykiwi
        
        Population housing density? Average age? Average BMI? Vitamin D3 levels?
        
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        October 16, 2021 8:07pm
      - Benedict Yu
        
        You are making stuff up. New Zealand has very high BMI compared to those places. Do you have any evidence about other variables?
        
        I get you are an anti vaxxer. That’s fine. Stop trying to justify it.
        
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        October 16, 2021 8:47pm
      - krazykiwi
        
        Steady growth on. We say ‘play the ball’ around these parts. You were asserting that all these places are essentially identical in terms of demographic and/or geographic risks. I simply suggested how they could differ.
        
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        October 16, 2021 8:57pm
      - PhilBest
        
        Benedict; we are very different from Brazil, and different enough from Portugal and South Dakota in factors that will make a difference.
        
        Our UV and solar radiation kills viruses in as little as 1/5 of the time – 4 minutes versus 20 – than it does in most other parts of the world. UV doesn’t get indoors, but Ozone, created outdoors by UV, does. And so does some of the other forms of solar radiation.
        
        Portugal has a lot of very old stone housing. NZ’s predominant housing type built of inherently breathable wood, is an advantage to us. NZ has very much less equivalents to Brazil’s Favelas or incredibly dense apartments. NZ does not have such severe weather of a kind that keeps people confined indoors and with windows shut, certainly not like Brazil’s season of heavy rains and thunderstorms, which is the reason their flu season is offset from where you’d naturally expect it to be purely due to southern hemisphere temperature patterns.
        
        South Dakota has long periods of freezing conditions with snow on the ground. Indoors gets incredibly dry, which is perfect for floating airborne viruses. Another factor that an American contact pointed out to me, is that grain harvesting season causes the air to fill with particulates that cause respiratory problems, and makes people shelter indoors with windows closed.
        
        I doubt any of these places you mention have NZ’s prevalent wind patterns to create accidental ventilation everywhere.
        
        Another factor with Latino cultures is that the way they speak and vocalise tends to expelling higher amounts of droplets of all sizes, which would include many of the crucial aerosol size.
        
        Bear in mind too that the deaths are almost entirely of elderly who exist in certain housing conditions; this is crucial to comparisons of different nations vulnerability to Covid death rates. With NZ’s natural advantages, it would be an unconscionable own-goal to somehow engineer rest home death rates comparable to parts of the world that do not have our natural advantages.
        
        And if your belief in the vaccines is well founded, the highly-vaccinated rest home population are pretty much out of the equation for NZ. So far, the fact that infection has been ripping through the crowded rental housing sector, with multi-generational households, low vaccination rates, and high levels of obesity, diabetes and other co-morbidities, and a high degree of lockdown scofflawing – and we only have two deaths so far – clearly shows clearly that there is something we are leaving out of the equation, and I say this is natural advantages.
        
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        October 17, 2021 7:51am
comm4nder

What really matters is the growth in “mystery” cases. They are the real potential spreaders.
Most of the new cases are household contacts of existing cases. They don’t matter.
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October 16, 2021 12:05pm
- CherryCat
  
  The mystery cases become quite unmysterious within a day or two. Unlinked cases is fear porn.
  
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  October 17, 2021 10:41am
lazza

One for Owen Jennings ref; his yesterday’s Guest Post … sub titled “Fear”.

Fear comes in many guises as does the level of tolerance of, or the fear of fear itself.

We all see these issues from our own standpoint.

Then there is rational and irrational fear … coupled to the very human response of fight or flight … when we are “in fear”, that is, scared.

Some of us, myself included, practice in everyday real life, danger avoidance and we adhere to risk management practices.

For eg: I do not bungy jump and would never at whatever age give it a whirl. It is a stupid BS pastime anyway… IMHO (of course) simply not worthy of its risk.

Then again, for the enjoyment-thrill factor and so on, I would! do a sailing trip to the Barrier in 30 to 40 Kts wind … just for the thrill and hell of it

Campeche?

So Owen … less of the presumptions that your contribution is shot through with … OK?

I’ll! decide the risks of Covid-19 transmission using my! viewpoint and its risk management techniques for myself … thanks very much.

And BTW, our community spirits will be treated with respect (of others) … along the way … Ehh?
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October 16, 2021 12:07pm
Chuck Bird

FYI

‘You Sir, Are The One Ignoring Science’: Rand Paul Battles Becerra Over COVID-19 Rules

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MI_Dm3pj3dQ
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October 16, 2021 12:15pm
- PhilBest
  
  Secretary Becerra: “I’m not familiar with that study, Senator”
  
  I wonder what St Ashley would say?
  
  There is a lot of studies that our official charlatans are “not familiar with”
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:30pm
alloytoo

What we also need to remember is that for the most part, these stats reflect only those being tested and being tested is a self selection process based on:

A) Work requirement
B) Perceived Risk
C) Feeling a bit crook.

How many infected people have failed to self select in this manner?
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October 16, 2021 12:16pm
Andrew Worth

“Australia publishes this data daily”

Can I trouble you for a link, it’ll be a useful guide for where we’ll be in a few weeks/months.
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October 16, 2021 12:16pm
- Benedict Yu
  
  https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-case-numbers-and-statistics
  
  12 0
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  October 16, 2021 12:23pm
  - bronny1
    
    Typically useless data. Nothing in vax vs unvaxxed that I can see. Nothing in comorbidities. We already know it gets older people.
    
    4 4
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    October 16, 2021 12:47pm
Inthe09

Observations from Auckland yesterday

I went to a group fitness class yesterday evening – everyone made a token effort with masks for a couple of mins but general joking about what a nonsense it all is so that didn’t last long.

We had a good workout (not 2m apart) and stayed on for drinks and a catch up, which was just what everyone needed. People need physical activity and social contact.

Much comment about setting a date and letting us get on with life. Concern about when we’ll be able to see family outside of Auckland again. A couple there very low with their businesses likely to fail, bloody hard listening to their stories. Totally avoidable.

Pleased to report a big group of teenagers playing rugby on the field next to us.

It was only a group of 12 (yes I know we are allowed 10) but the thing that pleased me was that no one there last night is living in fear or buys into any of the ‘experts’ doom and gloom.
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October 16, 2021 12:18pm
- Cinematic
  
  You should see Mission Bay today. Gridlock and beach coverage at epic proportions.
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:04pm
- PhilBest
  
  Was it outside? There should be no limits at all on outdoors activity; whether fitness classes, sport, dancing, sing-alongs, worship, whatever.
  
  Maybe mass tongueing could cause superspreading outdoors, but I am talking about normal activities.
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:39pm
Southern Raider

Who cares about case numbers. Most countries aren’t even reporting them any more

Only metrics that count are
– vaccination rate
– hospitalisation
– deaths
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October 16, 2021 12:19pm
- CherryCat
  
  And of those vaccination is only important for what may come.
  
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  October 17, 2021 10:44am
Southern Raider

What a scam.

Official event starts at midday and by 15 mins past the super Saturday vaccination rate is already at 54% of target

Labour being aspirational since 2017
10 3
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October 16, 2021 12:20pm
- Inandout
  
  SR, Jacinda said she doesn’t use ‘targets’, too unreliable apparently.
  
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  October 16, 2021 1:22pm
miltonF

This is really confusing to me. How can the case number be increasing so quickly when we have such a high rate of vaccination, in Auckland in particular.
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October 16, 2021 12:22pm
- Stu2
  
  I’ve just put this post on the general thread.
  
  The RNZ covid visualisation has just added a breakdown of Auckland cases (all cases and hospitalisations) by vaccination status:
  – under 12
  – not vaxed
  – 1 dose < 14 days old
  – 1 dose
  – 2nd dose < 14 days old
  – 2 doses
  
  If you go down about 60%, and click on the Vaccination Status graph to make it show cases you will find that they are overwhelmingly unvaxxed (and under 12).
  
  https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/in-depth/450874/covid-19-data-visualisations-nz-in-numbers
  
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  October 16, 2021 1:00pm
- Fight4NZ
  
  It’s quite easy. The rise is fairly quick but at 60 or so absolute numbers are still tiny. So there are plenty of unvaccinated idiots with no conscience for this to rip through yet, and of course allowing higher exposure levels for the population in general, so likely growth of breakthrough case numbers won’t be too far behind.
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:33pm
- PhilBest
  
  Milton: it is because the superspreading events, environments, and behavior has been dispoportionately in the unvaxxed. It is easy to predict from the rest of the world, that once restrictions are relaxed “because enough people are vaccinated”, the law-abiding, vaccinated people will indulge in high risk behavior in high risk environments once more, and then NZ too will see a wave of “breakthrough infections”.
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:37pm
Cinematic

It will be interesting to see if there is an inverse relationship here with Labours polling.
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October 16, 2021 12:29pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Cindy is trying to divert her failure by visiting various places personally and serving coffee and trying to charm the unwashed. Unfortunately the gullible are falling for this trick. What happened to housing shortage, poverdy elimination and our nuclear moment? All forgotten?
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October 16, 2021 12:29pm
Stu2

The graph also shows what happened to elimination.

The rolling average was stuck from Sept 8-28 between about 16 and 19, never got close to zero. There was enough rule breaking to keep things ticking over.

Then they tried level 3.
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October 16, 2021 12:34pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

I hope there is general awareness of how to handle having someone sick in the house with you. Increasing the initial load of virus you injest is Really Bad™, because it increases the ultimate maximum viral load in you body before your immune system catches up and stops that viral increase. So if someone in your household is getting sick you need to isolate them as much as possible in your house (master bedroom suite is a good option), windows open, and I’m not sure that masks really help all that much.

It is likely that this has been impossible in packed low socio-economic housing of south Auckland outbreak, and as a result there are likely to have been far worse outcomes, particularly for kids.
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October 16, 2021 12:34pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

Doubling roughly every 2 weeks, so in 2 months we will have thousand + cases per day. A very Covid Christmas
6 3
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October 16, 2021 12:37pm
- Fight4NZ
  
  As Stu2 noted above, rule breakers have stuffed Christmas for us all, especially those businesses sorely needing the usual boost. The antivaxx “this is a decision with consequences for me only “ mantra is simply not true for an epidemic.
  
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  October 16, 2021 2:37pm
- PhilBest
  
  Maybe we will have a “casedemic” for Christmas. but the death curve takes a holiday in summer, even in colder-latitude Northern Hemisphere countries like Pommyland.
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:34pm
  - Ian Boag
    
    Just the 16 posts in this thread today Phil. A selfless way to pass a Sunday …
    
    Anyway – the guts of the issue – there are just FOUR approaches to the management of a pandemic.
    
    1) Isolation
    2) Antivirals
    3) Vaccination
    4) Ignore it
    
    There are not any others. As far as I can tell, you support option (4).
    
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    December 17, 2020 3:39pm
kevn

@Bened… Good work. Thank you.
2 1
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October 16, 2021 12:46pm
Alwyn Poole

Official British data: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1023849/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_40.pdf

P16-17 highly relevant. read it carefully.

Vaccine mandates in education could be the worst decision yet. The data says that the crucial thing for speared is not it someone is vaccinated or not. It is whether they have the virus. The proposed testing for teachers can be at least 5 days old.

In our 3 schools we have children who go home to cramped, multi-generational homes with up to 14 people.

25 elite businesses are allowed to use rapid-antigen testing. It should be available for schools with vulnerable home populations.
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October 16, 2021 12:46pm
lifesgood

Am I the only person who can’t believe the ridiculous, breathless reports of someone with covid visiting a hospital emergency department. Surely if you are feeling very ill and can hardly breathe a hospital emergency department is just the place you WOULD go.
6 2
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October 16, 2021 1:18pm
Okahu

Come on DPF. Of course cases are growing. A very transmissible and rather nasty disease is loose in the community. Other than an opportunity for the regulars to regurgitate their mostly tired opinions once more what does this post achieve?

How about a declaration Kiwiblog is against unnecessary suffering and grief and is all in on vaccination? How about an exhortation from on high that we want every Kiwiblogger vacced? How about a week long stand down for any nutter that spreads their anti vax bullshit here?

If you can’t bring yourself to that shred of decency how about celebrating the success of our vaccination efforts thusfar, despite the fuckwits that gather here. It’s not pro Left, pro Labour. It’s pro life and pro science. Damn it man even Judith and David see that.
Grow a pair!
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October 16, 2021 1:57pm
- Aunty
  
  “How about a week long stand down for any nutter that spreads their anti vax bullshit here?”
  
  I agree. But if he did that, 75% of the people who post here would disappear for a week!
  
  2 8
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  October 16, 2021 3:01pm
  - kevn
    
    @aunty… Hardly any anti vaxxers here. I’ll wager they have all had their polio, mumps, measles, tetanus, whooping cough etc jabs.
    They may be waiting for… something in the same proven type like Novavax or Valneva.
    I have met medical professionals who are on hold and waiting for either of those options.
    
    7 4
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    October 16, 2021 5:42pm
    - Ian Boag
      
      If you are really a fan of “dead virus” vaxes, there is always Sinovac. A few zillion doses have been administered in China, where – interestingly – they are still going for elimination.
      
      Go figure
      
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      October 17, 2021 10:00am
- Liberal Cliche
  
  Okahu guide to defeating covid…
  
  More censorship.
  
  You’d make a great gulag guard.
  
  How about you take religious vax rhetoric back to facebook, plenty of baptized crazy “we’re all gunna die!!” wackjobs their for you to mingle with.
  
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  October 16, 2021 3:07pm
- Inandout
  
  Okahu, how can you speak of ‘pro life’ in this context? Now I am ambivalent as far as abortion goes but isn’t that the catch cry the anti abortionists use? This coupled with the pro abortion phrase ‘my body, my choice’ and you enter troubled waters with regard to vaccines. Merely an observation of the Alice in Wonderland logic we see nowadays.
  
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  October 16, 2021 3:17pm
- Cinematic
  
  Oh Okahu you have a head of steam up!
  
  Vaxx roll out has been crap. Labour’s crap, really really crap. They’ve screwed the pooch on the covid response from basically every angle.
  
  Because they’re an inexperienced incompetent intellectually challenged bunch of career politician losers.
  
  8 1
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  October 16, 2021 4:01pm
- krazykiwi
  
  Here’s an idea, Okahu. Go and set up your own blog where you’ll be able to implement those censorship and banning rules that you so earnestly expect of DPF. If you do this I promise to be the first commentator whereupon you will be able to instantly ban me before no doubt enjoying a giddy little epinephrine rush.
  
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  October 16, 2021 4:12pm
  - Fight4NZ
    
    So you acknowledge that you are a “ nutter that spreads their anti vax bullshit here”
    
    4 8
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    October 16, 2021 4:37pm
    - Cinematic
      
      Huh?
      
      4 1
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      October 16, 2021 5:02pm
    - krazykiwi
      
      Is that a question, a conclusion, or simply evidence of your confusion?
      
      5 3
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      October 16, 2021 5:12pm
      - Fight4NZ
        
        Why am I surprised, scratch that, flabbergasted you can’t follow the logic of my comment. It is completely consistent with the lack of reading comprehension you and your cohort demonstrate daily.
        
        1 4
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        October 16, 2021 9:57pm
CAKE FACE1

Cases growing is fantastic news, and makes me positive for the first time in 18 months. I’m hoping for a further acceleration in cases.

I have no doubt that Cindy wanted to keep NZ zero Covid until the next election at least, but fortunately for us, Delta got out of hand. She had no choice but to abandon the insane Elimination strategy.

Delta should take approximately 2 years to run through our entire population.

I suspect that the L3 lockdown will be ended soon. It costs an absolute fortune, and its only purpose is to slow the rate of infection. This is a terrible use of public money.

Unless hospitals are being overrun, lockdowns aren’t justified.

A Royal Commission should wait until after the next election. Any earlier, and Cindy would just roll out Pinky, Baker and Hendy to justify her bad decisions. Why bother paying for that?

I’m optimistic about the future looks now.

Thank God for the end of the Zero Covid mass insanity.
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October 16, 2021 2:18pm
- ds
  
  It takes a particularly nasty person to wish that case numbers increase.
  I’m hopping that more of your zombie businesses go bankrupt.
  
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  October 16, 2021 3:54pm
  - krazykiwi
    
    There’s a bit of nasty person QED in your comment, ds. That aside, answer me this: Given that you getting Covid-19 is as close to 100% certainty as is possible, and assuming you have been vaccinated, would you prefer to get Covid-19 today, or in 6 months time? What is your rationale?
    
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    October 16, 2021 5:21pm
  - CAKE FACE1
    
    Every person in the world either has had Covid, or will get it, almost certainly in the next two years.
    
    This is not a decision by CAKE.
    
    This is driven by natures will.
    
    So be it.
    
    Of course, there is one way you can avoid the inevitable Rona spread, which is the option I suspect that you will take.
    
    You could hide under your bed, for the rest of your life.
    
    Indeed, it might be best for everyone if you did this.
    
    Enjoy!
    
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    October 16, 2021 6:21pm
  - Cinematic
    
    Nonsense. Delta has wrenched us all free of Jacinda’s death grip. Be thankful.
    
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    October 16, 2021 6:25pm
altiora

What are you saying? That the Jacinda publicity orgy isn’t stopping infections?
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October 16, 2021 2:20pm
Aunty

Well, for all you old lady screamers in here, hysterically wailing to anyone who will listen that we have to learn to live with the virus, looks like you’re going to get your chance, doesn’t it?

I hope you’re all doubled vaxxed. I am.
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October 16, 2021 2:39pm
- Cinematic
  
  We were always going to get the chance. Pity we didn’t get the chance months ago. We’d be relatively free like the rest of the world.
  
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  October 16, 2021 6:27pm
  - Fight4NZ
    
    Months ago we were totally free unlike the rest of the world.
    
    1 3
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    October 16, 2021 10:00pm
rjay

There are currently 1895 active cases in New Zealand. 31 are serious enough to require hospital care. 6 are in ICU or HCU. 83% of the eligible population has had their first jab (before Super Saturday).
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October 16, 2021 2:42pm
dcrane

Just don’t forget they’re having 30-40,000 cases a day in the U.K., and the country is open. That would equate to 2,500-3,000 a day here corrected for population.

Btw also relevant is this interesting essay about the early spread of covid in Europe in 2019. Surprisingly slow, in the absence of restrictions. Admittedly this was the alpha form.

https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/the-earliest-infections
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October 16, 2021 2:54pm
UrbanNeocolonialist

The supposedly ‘irresponsible’ currently getting themselves infected are actually better off than the ‘responsible’ ones who taking more care, because at least they will have good access to hospital care if they need it. Hospitals will be swamped in another 2 months, and more ‘responsible’ people will be dying as a result.
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October 16, 2021 3:11pm
Aunty

And my thinking on protecting the vulnerable has undergone a 180-degree transformation.

I agree with you all that we should be protecting the vulnerable (and our hospitals) by now requiring the vulnerable to stay at home.

So on that basis, I call for the unvaccinated (the vulnerable) to be kept at home on alert level 4 lockdown, until it is judged safe for them to leave their houses. And the rest of us can go about our business as before.
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October 16, 2021 3:22pm
- krazykiwi
  
  So let me get this right, Aunty. My neighbour (two doors down) is a double jabbed, obese, crotch scratching slob of about 65, and my granddaughter is 5 and unvaccinated. You want her locked up, and my neighbour free to go out. Right got it.
  
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  October 16, 2021 5:30pm
Fletch

We had less cases today than yesterday.
1 5
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October 16, 2021 3:48pm
ISeeRed

Yep, keep feeding the fear. Good for website traffic and visitor engagement.
2 4
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October 16, 2021 4:04pm
- Cinematic
  
  Oh the irony.
  
  1 1
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  October 16, 2021 6:29pm
youami

Have to get the numbers up to mask all the vaccine related deaths that are coming. Can’t have NZ being the only highly vaxxed country without endemic COVID, otherwise the game would be up.
5 3
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October 16, 2021 4:17pm
- Cinematic
  
  Nonsense.
  
  1 2
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  October 16, 2021 6:29pm
stever

But vaccine and stuff …………….. Oh wait
3 0
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October 16, 2021 4:42pm
kevn

Breaking news… PM sets new goal, thanking John Key for pushing the idea forward.
4 0
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October 16, 2021 4:43pm
Gertie

Its not a vaccine. And what makes you think their new RNA isnt longer lasting than a couple of weeks. Busy ordering the building of proteins that can cross the blood brain barrier for a long time to come. Hmm what could go wrong?
7 2
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October 16, 2021 6:57pm
- ISeeRed
  
  Hilarious how it was cool to hate on the medical-industrial complex until five minutes ago. Now we can place 100% trust in Big Pharma and its government-protected, profit-driven, liability-exempt products or you’re an anti-science conspiracy nutjob who deserves to lose your job, be denied healthcare and treated like a menace to society akin to a child molester.
  
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  October 16, 2021 9:42pm
- Fight4NZ
  
  Nothing, you are just very poorly informed.
  
  1 3
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  October 16, 2021 10:06pm
AlphaWhiskey

What about hospitalisation rates? Without that piece of data the graph is of little real value except to a voyer
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October 17, 2021 9:56pm

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