The case for Level 3 for Auckland

This shows the number of community cases during the latest outbreak. It is clear Level 4 stopped exponential growth, but also clear that there is ongoing community transmission.

Auckland has been in Level 4 for almost five weeks or 34 days. It is hard to see why one would think six weeks at Level 4 would work any better than five weeks. At five weeks there has been time for two full cycles of infection. Anyone getting infected now will probably be third generation or more, and has been infected under level 4.

So if the decision is to remain with Level 4, then one can only conclude Level 4 will stay in force until say 90% of eligible Aucklanders are vaccinated – which could be months away.

The alternative is to go to Level 3, accepting there will be some increase in cases but having confidence contact tracing and testing is good enough to keep it manageable.

So Cabinet should confirm today their in principle decision of last week.