Latest poll

The June 2021 Roy Morgan is out.

Party Vote

• Labour 38.5% (-6.5% from May)
• National 29.5% (+1.0%)
• Greens 12.5% (+1.5%
• ACT 11.5% (+2.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)

Seats

• Labour 49 (-16 from election)
• National 37 (+4)
• Greens 16 (+6)
• ACT 15 (+5)
• Maori 3 (+1)

Direction

• Right 57.0% (-5.5%)
• Wrong 33.0% (+4.5%)

I’d caution about reading too much into the 6.5% drop for Labour from May to June. Roy Morgan does tend to bounce around a bit.

What I think you can conclude though is three clear trends:

• Labour’s support is well down on the election result, and dropping
• ACT and Greens are doing relatively well
• National is bouncing around in the 20s (but high 20s is better than law 20s)

This shows the potential that is there for National to do well, should they cease generating negative stories about themselves. The drop in the country direction (while still positive) shows that there are a growing number of people worried about where things are heading, and want a better alternative. National needs to provide it.

Labour will not be too worried about one poll, but if another was to come out with a 3 rather than a 4 for them, then I’d expect some Labour MPs in marginal seats or lower down the list to get nervous. However with over two years to the next election, they have lots of time to improve.