Will Jacinda win?

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is in a three-way race for the Nobel Peace Prize, according to bookmakers – with Donald Trump hot on her heels.

The world’s most prestigious awards are announced tonight about 11pm NZ time.

Most bookmakers have Ardern in the top three nominees, with the World Health Organisation and climate activist Greta Thunberg. The US president is fourth favourite, say bookies.

There are 318 candidates this year – of which 211 are individuals and 107 are organisations.

If Trump is the 4th favourite with the bookies, that says a lot about the bookies. Not saying Trump’s Middle East peace deals are not highly laudable – just that it is inconceivable he would win given who makes the decision.

The WHO would be a strange choice. They certainly play an important role in battling Covid-19 (especially in the developing world), but they have not been standout performers, to say the least. If they win, it will be more an act of solidarity as they are under fire.

So that leaves Thunberg vs Ardern. If it is between those two, I’d have to say Ardern is the more deserving. Her actions after March 15 had an actual positive impact around the world. Rather than have a backlash and reprisals from Muslim majority countries, NZ’s response to the massacre was praised widely, and the end result was the opposite of what the terrorist wanted to achieve. Not all of that is due to Ardern, but certainly some of it is.

Thunberg has certainly motivated a large number of people, and led to protests and strikes around the world. But has there been any actual change of substance due to her advocacy? No.

Of course it may go to someone outside the bookie favourites.

Whether Ardern wins or not, the publicity around it will probably help coming a week before the election.