The US House forecast

Five Thirty Eight have launched their House forecast, and it is no surprise.

They have the Democrats at 94% probability to keep the House.

Specifically they are forecasting 237 seats for the Democrats and 198 for the GOP. This would be a small four seat gain for the Democrats.

Now there are models for the presidency, Senate and House, we can calculate some odds for overall outcomes.

The Senate is 68% likely to flip to the Democrats and they have Biden at 84% to win the presidency. So overall the chance of Democrats holding both chambers and the presidency is 65%.