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October 17, 2020 7:08pm by David Farrar

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Rather than post updates both here on Twitter, I’m embedding my Twitter feed below, for those interested.

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surfing

National are borked. Primarily due to multiple leadership changes and covid.

Collins didn’t focus enough on labour failures.

But, there you go.
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October 17, 2020 7:21pm
- Andrei
  
  No Judith Collins did do enough but alas the dismal quality of National MPs was revealed when they rolled Simon Bridges in favour of Todd Mueller which as subsequent events have shown was a mistake of epic proportions
  
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  October 17, 2020 7:35pm
  - Loddenthinks
    
    It’s Muller. Todd Muller.
    
    5 1
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    October 17, 2020 10:20pm
  - Aunty
    
    I agree. That was the beginning of the end for National.
    
    And for God’s sake, the Party has got to do something to distance itself from the toxic Mathew Hooten. Get him the fuck out of it! Now!
    
    4 0
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    October 17, 2020 11:51pm
- peterwn
  
  She did what she could. She also had to consider that anything she says can backfire on her. Knocking the opposition is not necessarily the best approach. Judith has been quite successful in limiting Labour’s options eg with taxation. I think she has done the best with the hand dealt to her. Jacinda was triple lucky with the three tragedies that hit NZ in the last few years. Covid and Jacinda’s PR response resulted in a structural shift in voter sentiment towards her and against National and NZF. She played that PR well and this has been a larger influence on voting than failure to act properly on housing, alleged child poverty, etc.
  
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  October 17, 2020 7:39pm
  - Don Beckett
    
    Agree Peter.
    And all those older bracket women who have voted National all their lives – some were farmers – have voted Labour because Jacinda.
    Weak emotionalism has ruined our society. A friend of mine who is looking after his elderly mother told me his mother voted Lab/Jacinda, and she has ALWAYS been a staunch National voter all her life. Same with a friend of hers.
    I hope rationality does not desert me – I’m 78 now – God spre me from EVER changing my politics because “emotion”.
    
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    October 17, 2020 8:13pm
    - Fentex
      
      You don’t like the result, so of course it’s “weak emotionalism” from women.
      
      Personally, if my mother made a choice I didn’t expect I’d think about why she did it, because I respect my mother and accept she has her own mind.
      
      I don’t know your mother so maybe she is what you’re telling us – a silly weak overly emotional person. I mean, surely you know her where we don’t.
      
      She can’t possibly have made a reasoned choice, can she?
      
      3 13
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      October 17, 2020 9:21pm
      - tom hunter
        
        You’re the one who, after losing the bet on Trump in 2016, explained that you had never expected American voters to be so stupid.
        
        13 0
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        October 17, 2020 9:28pm
      - Fentex
        
        No, I said I didn’t think they were that stupid BEFORE they elected him – and put money on it.
        
        Now I know, because I paid for the lesson, that they are that stupid.
        
        Now if someone wants to argue that proves something about voting for Labour, wait four years and see where we are to claim vindication, or not.
        
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        October 17, 2020 11:09pm
- Catgurl13
  
  Sadly we have a large number of people who like the envy wealth tax idea too. Many kids of today think that voting for Labour and Greens is progressive. These kids don’t see they will be paying for all this massive debt on top of losing their inheritance if they are lucky to get any when their parents pass on. Jacinda has been campaigning during daily updates who’s is very corrupt. Then Jacinda has her party launch and then locked the country down preventing other parties from campaigning,along with setting election date earlier than Nov. It was all very corrupt and deliberate.
  
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  October 17, 2020 8:34pm
JulieBabe

Too much left influence in our schools and universities has turned NZ into a nation of woke sheeple.
33 4
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October 17, 2020 7:46pm
- tf78
  
  Julie – I wish the f…..ers would WAKE up! The bill’s on them after all.
  
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  October 17, 2020 8:18pm
PaulL

Was discussing with the better half today what things might look like if only citizens could vote (not permanent residents). I also wonder about people who haven’t been in NZ for quite some time being able to vote.
13 2
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October 17, 2020 7:54pm
- surfing
  
  My mate who has been living in Ireland since 2003 is voting . And, he is not really expecting to return here.
  
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  October 17, 2020 8:01pm
  - PaulL
    
    Right. And probably voting based on what international media tell him – so voting for Jacinda or for Green, with no actual information about policies or delivery. Ah well.
    
    16 1
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    October 17, 2020 8:23pm
  - MaxG
    
    Is there no limit to how long you can be overseas and still vote? I know UK limits this to 15 years (which in itself seems very generous).
    
    8 0
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    October 17, 2020 8:23pm
    - Hauraki
      
      You can enrol and vote from overseas if all the following statements are true:
      
      you are 18 years or older
      you’ve lived in New Zealand for more than 12 months continuously at some time in your life
      you are one of the following:
      a New Zealand citizen who’s visited New Zealand within the last 3 years
      a New Zealand permanent resident who’s visited New Zealand within the last 12 months.
      
      https://vote.nz/enrolling/get-ready-to-enrol/are-you-eligible-to-enrol-and-vote/
      
      5 0
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      October 17, 2020 9:24pm
- Bullion
  
  Generally electorates with higher proportions of people not born in NZ vote right
  
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  October 17, 2020 8:14pm
samwise

TV1 election coverage is as bad as Nats result.
16 0
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October 17, 2020 8:09pm
tf78

I just caught an Uber home – lovely Indian fellow. I asked who did you vote for, he said “Jacinda” – I said why – because she saved us from Covid. After chatting longer he said he had two jobs whilst his neighbours sit outside all day drinking. He finally recognized the unfairness and rues the day he felt obliged to vote for the falsity named Jacinda. (Stuff her and all who follow her). Our country was not built on lies and deceit, it was built by honest, hardworking men and women, they must be remembered. Disappointment does not cover how I feel – I feel totally robbed.

I said that I wished I found him last week (so does he now) he said all his friends did the same.

This government will never be recognized by me. If the Maoris can have their own kind of governance why can’t we, who didn’t vote for the dictatorship that will befall us.

God please defend New Zealand
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October 17, 2020 8:11pm
- surfing
  
  new zealand is hardly going to fall to pieces .
  
  There is not a huge difference between labour / national where the rubber meets the road.
  
  I’m just disappointed we don’t have a significant party that stands for small government…. Act does, but is not significantly supported.
  
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  October 17, 2020 8:22pm
  - Fentex
    
    You’re not watching the results, it seems.
    
    0 4
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    October 17, 2020 9:22pm
  - kowtow
    
    not a huge difference between labour / national
    
    Really ? To new Labour we’re not New Zealand , we’re Ayoteyarower , and the difference is literally incalculable.
    
    9 2
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    October 17, 2020 10:05pm
    - surfing
      
      You’ll just have to accept we live in a socialist society. You don’t like? Move to Singapore because this isn’t going to change whether national or labour are in power.
      
      1 0
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      October 17, 2020 11:57pm
surfing

Who will replace Collins?
4 17
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October 17, 2020 8:11pm
- Don Beckett
  
  No-one – she will stay on as leader. She has done the best she possibly could with the hand dealt to her.
  
  24 4
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  October 17, 2020 8:15pm
  - surfing
    
    Loser’s words.
    
    She said she would win. She didn’t. Move on.
    
    She will be rolled for sure .
    
    5 14
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    October 17, 2020 8:17pm
    - rouppe
      
      Jacinda said she’d have a CGT. She didn’t.
      
      So by your logic…
      
      2 0
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      October 17, 2020 11:05pm
  - IC5000
    
    > No-one – she will stay on as leader.
    
    And this is what is wrong with the National party
    
    2 13
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    October 17, 2020 8:25pm
  - tavita
    
    I hope you are right, but unfortunately that’s not the normal way. If Bill English and the rest of the team had stayed on they would have had a far better chance of recovery. That said I can understand how Bill and co felt and i can understand the party’s need to have a scapegoat.
    
    8 1
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    October 17, 2020 8:25pm
  - Maggy Wassilieff
    
    Yesterday Peter Goodfellow did not back her as a continuing leader.
    He said wait until after the election to see what will happen.
    
    5 0
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    October 17, 2020 10:07pm
- RJ
  
  Honestly, I think if the infighting and leaking doesn’t stop, there could be several leaders over the coming years.
  
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  October 17, 2020 8:41pm
surfing

Going to be a boring 3 years for Act too.
5 0
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October 17, 2020 8:17pm
- Nick R
  
  I think ACT will be an absolute circus. Seymour has never managed a caucus. Nobody else in his caucus has been in parliament before. Most of them will have nothing to do. I will be astonished if they can maintain any sort of discipline. More likely there will be a big meltdown once the novelty has worn off and the reality of being a back bench opposition MP sinks in.
  
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  October 17, 2020 9:36pm
  - Loddenthinks
    
    I’m prepared to give a lot of credit to ACT and David Seymour, and not judge him/them by, say, NZF standards.
    
    8 0
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    October 17, 2020 10:24pm
  - rouppe
    
    He will have to devote quite some time to mentoring them.
    
    If I were advising them the first things I would say would be:
    1) Do not talk to Andrea Vance.
    2) Do not talk to Tova O’Brien.
    
    5 2
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    October 17, 2020 11:17pm
gump

I’ve posted on numerous occasions that Judith Collins is electoral poison and the ballot boxes are confirming it.

It gives me no pleasure to be proven right (ok – almost no pleasure).
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October 17, 2020 8:22pm
nasska

And a huge thank you to the narrow minded, know all Godbotherers who in their pig ignorance have made National as appealing to the electorate as a shit sandwich. //
10 10
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October 17, 2020 8:30pm
- kowtow
  
  The damage was done by the “liberal” ( left) wing when they rolled Simon. It was the soft cocks , not the God botherers .
  And that prick Hooton , who had another piece inthe Herald this week was doing it again on 3 tonight . Does he want to destroy the village to save it , he’s doing his best , he’s a player .
  
  14 3
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  October 17, 2020 10:14pm
- Chinarugby
  
  Yup – National, once a Broad church party, has evolved into a god botherers party.
  Too many happy clappys – Ngaro, Luxon etc etc
  
  Deeply off putting to Joe average – and were rightfully punished at the ballot box.
  
  2 0
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  October 18, 2020 1:09am
Ultima

I wonder after tonight’s massive victory will Cindy look forward to a covid vaccine?
4 2
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October 17, 2020 8:43pm
- Michael Duke
  
  The strategy will change now she has been re-elected, well let me correct myself, elected rather than selected.
  
  1 0
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  October 18, 2020 12:15am
BananaLlama

Good result for Labour, they will be over the moon.
6 1
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October 17, 2020 8:44pm
- Hard Cheese
  
  I’d gladly chip in for a rocket to take them there
  
  9 2
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  October 17, 2020 10:34pm
  - Chinarugby
    
    tough cheese hard cheese
    
    0 0
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    October 18, 2020 1:10am
gump

I see that Labour is comfortably ahead for the party vote in Southland (formerly Clutha-Southland).

Even the bluest of blue seats are turning against National.
7 0
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October 17, 2020 8:46pm
JeffW

Seems like the Media Party is winning
16 1
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October 17, 2020 8:54pm
Lance

TV1 coverage has laid bare how nasty Hilary is.
I expected the rest of the 12 year olds there to openly flaunt their bias, but she took it to another level.
Changed to TV3, only slightly better.
7 0
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October 17, 2020 9:03pm
- Warren Murray
  
  I did same, and was very glad to have done so. I really liked the frequent changes to the panel on 3.
  
  Finlayson’s analysis and assessment was bang on.
  
  4 0
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  October 17, 2020 11:18pm
  - Chinarugby
    
    Yes – TV 3 – vastly better coverage.
    
    0 0
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    October 18, 2020 1:11am
- Warren Murray
  
  There was unanimous agreement on TV 3’s panel that Kelvin Davis’s speech was cringeworthy & they were questioning his suitability to being deputy PM.
  
  All that Cunfliffe could say was that Davis is ‘a good bloke’.
  
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  October 17, 2020 11:34pm
SmokerGuy

Well done New Zealand you’ve voted for self destruction. Enjoy the fucking shambles this country will be in 3 years time
21 5
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October 17, 2020 9:05pm
- kowtow
  
  Christmas and turkeys comes to mind.
  
  7 3
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  October 17, 2020 10:16pm
Prince

Interesting feed above about todays voting. Won’t change the Govt but some of the Barry/Campbell gloating may be a little premature.
6 0
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October 17, 2020 9:14pm
Catgurl13

How wonderful of Simon to be being so negative and bagging his own party tonight.
2 6
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October 17, 2020 9:16pm
- SmokerGuy
  
  Is he supposed to be positive and upbeat? They are being destroyed and it’s hard to argue with what he said tbh
  
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  October 17, 2020 9:27pm
  - Catgurl13
    
    He was rolled and he’s still sore about it. If he was unhappy he could have quit the party altogether but no. He’s gutless stabbing Judith tonight.
    
    2 7
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    October 17, 2020 10:03pm
- Loddenthinks
  
  100% – Chris Bishop played it with a straight bat when asked “what went wrong?” He said now’s not the time, Bridges put the boot in straight away before attempting to say it wasn’t the right time. Sure, Simon.
  
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  October 17, 2020 10:54pm
Cinematic

My team is doing poorly. I’m not verily worried as my business does super well under centre left government. Still, it’s a shame.
7 1
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October 17, 2020 9:16pm
- JeffW
  
  It’s been a while since John Key’s centre-left government. How does your business fare under a very left government?
  
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  October 17, 2020 9:36pm
  - Cinematic
    
    Heh. Well even better I would say. I can’t really lose.
    
    4 0
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    October 17, 2020 9:38pm
Inandout

What now for the $50 million bribe, carry on funding the MSM or let it go? My God it is going to be a tough 2021 and I am glad I have financial reserves.
10 4
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October 17, 2020 9:21pm
- kowtow
  
  What about the $3 billion bribe , didn’t get Spanker Jones his seat .
  
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  October 17, 2020 10:17pm
Frank the tank

Is it bad that I’ve drunk a 30 year old red in less than 10 minutes?
8 0
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October 17, 2020 9:47pm
- Cinematic
  
  Is it a kiwi red?
  
  4 0
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  October 17, 2020 10:23pm
tas

Good news:
* NZ First is gone.
* ACT is a real party again.
* Greens won’t get much power as they’re not needed.

Bad news:
* Long live Her Majesty Jacinda the First, By the Grace of God Queen of New Zealand, Head of the Climate Change, Defender of the Woke.
18 4
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October 17, 2020 9:57pm
- RJ
  
  No, greens will have power, although labour won’t need their vote they want to govern with them. Greens will be rewarded.
  
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  October 17, 2020 10:03pm
  - tas
    
    The greens will get some scraps, but they won’t have any real power.
    
    0 0
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    October 18, 2020 6:59am
- marcw
  
  Cat … pigeons – who amongst the stellar experienced Labour/Greens will be appointed Speaker?
  
  Mahuta, Rurawhe?
  
  Not much to choose from really.
  
  4 0
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  October 17, 2020 10:36pm
  - marcw
    
    Whoops – didn’t realise Mallard will get in on the list. Slam dunk I suppose.
    
    3 0
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    October 17, 2020 11:05pm
Frank the tank

Anyone else want to swing a round hook at Morgen. Godfrey?
2 0
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October 17, 2020 10:11pm
Flossie

Kelvin Davies is waaaaay out of line!! Deputy PM? Not even close.
8 0
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October 17, 2020 10:20pm
Martin Williams

This is Simon Bridges’ fault. He was the one who took National to sub 30% by constantly bitching about the government’s Covid response right in the middle of a pandemic.

Take a bow, Simon.
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October 17, 2020 10:28pm
Lance

What an absolute prat Kelvin Davis just made of himself.
A rambling cringe worthy poem a 10 year old would do better at.
11 0
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October 17, 2020 10:30pm
- marcw
  
  Just took over primary favourite for Speaker! Forget Mahuta.
  
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  October 17, 2020 10:38pm
Martin Williams

Great to see supposed wunderkind Chris Bishop lose his Hutt South seat.

This is the guy who ferreted around looking for ways to leak the budget last year. He’s always looking to hack confidential information. It is his prime objective as a politician, tripping other people up.

Voters hate that sort of behaviour and tonight’s result is confirmation of that.

He might grow up, but I have my doubts.
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October 17, 2020 11:05pm
- nathie
  
  I don’t seem to recall hearing or reading about Bishop wanting to “leak the budget” or about “always looking to hack confidential information”, can you explain or post some evidence etc?
  
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  October 17, 2020 11:32pm
Kiwi_in_Paris

New Zealand has fallen. The turkeys have voted in Christmas.
6 3
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October 17, 2020 11:23pm
rouppe

Patrick gower has been a monumental twat
6 1
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October 17, 2020 11:23pm
WaveyDavey

How come the Maori Party gets a list MP with 1%
1 2
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October 17, 2020 11:42pm
- marcw
  
  Maori party narrowly leading the electorate seat over Labour (Coffey), 97% of votes counted.
  
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  October 17, 2020 11:59pm
  - marcw
    
    Seems confirmed, Coffey loses to Maori party candidate. 99% of votes counted.
    
    2 0
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    October 18, 2020 12:14am
Aunty

Why did National lose?

1. Covid. The response by far too many on the right has been appalling, contradictory, confused, anti-science, delusional, out-of-touch and dangerous. We’ve seen plenty of examples of it in here. National’s mixed messages on both the medical and economic response to the pandemic sowed confusion and suspicions that it was placing profits over people. The people have just given Covidiot nutters throughout the land a serving. Take note!

2. Party instability and infighting, a lack of discipline and some extremely poor quality junior MPs within National. Whether or not it was Muller’s ill-conceived coup, the Jamie-Lee Ross fiasco, or MPs sending pictures of their genitals to young woman. The rot had well and truly set in. National simply does not look like a Party that is ready to govern. New Zealanders have never rewarded a political party with anything other than opprobrium when it is not a tightly focused and disciplined team. I lay the blame for that largely at the feet of Key and English and the Party leadership for not ensuring the party was and is renewed at each election with a small number of top quality candidates. Whatever happened to shoulder tapping, head hunting and talent seeking and then mentoring these candidates through to the House and then up through the ranks?

3. The End of Life Choices Bill. Too many National MPs revealed themselves to be both out of touch with and unrepresentative of their electorates and constituents. It’s all very well having religious beliefs and feelings, but the National Party clearly has too many ‘Christians and Catholics’ which has rendered the party tone deaf and at odds with the people over a vital issue that is of deep personal importance to them. Comments made by some National Party members and supporters, and MPs, during the End of Life Choices Bill has rubbed a lot of people up the wrong way. You just got pay back.

4. Strategic voting. I think there has been a significant number of people who have voted Labour in the hope of getting them over the 50% threshold to block the need for Labour to have a coalition with the Greens. The Greens taxation policies, and their Marxist-Leninist economics among other things are toxic and offensive to a large number of New Zealanders. Given that it was widely perceived that National had no hope of winning this election, (and needed a good clean out) the next best thing to stopping the Greens (and getting National to put its house in order) was to vote for Labour, to effectively shut the Greens out. Jacinda ruling out a wealth tax would have attracted a lot of votes from people who were already thinking this way.
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October 18, 2020 12:38am
- tas
  
  I think you are right. National’s decision to be overly critical of the highly successful COVID response was a huge mistake.
  
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  October 18, 2020 7:14am
V

Can someone check my numbers RBNZ is buying 100B of bonds over two years plus govt. running a 30B deficit. In a 300B economy (NZD).
So roughly 25% is pure stimulus.

You were never going to see a change of govt. with those number and house price inflation won’t change with or without RMA reform.
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October 18, 2020 12:52am
Okahu

Holy holy fark!!!

Or put another way, thank Christ we strung that out another 4 weeks for Judith to waggle those brows and weave her magic!

And thank sweet baby g-bus that the shy Tories saw the light and swung in hard behind us at the last moment!

And thank the Arabian goat herder’s main man himself, while we’re at it, that we spent that dosh letting everyone know how criminally useless those watermelons and their lefty middle class enablers are.

And christ almighty, thank Zeus and Krishna, that god, (not Marx) was (mostly) on our side, (lovely kneeling Judith) because otherwise, that could have ended badly. I mean really badly.

Like holy farq! That can’t just have happened bad. I’m gonna be sick bad. Everything I believe in has been rejected bad. My leaders are strategic donkeys and yet the future is (apparently) double down on fundy bad. We are crushed by the fish and chip girl bad. Then cannibalised by our own half witted spawn bad.

That bad!!! It could have been that bad…

Oh wait
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October 18, 2020 3:22am

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No Minister
THE AGE OF UNCERTAINTY
No Punches Pulled (Bob Jones)
New Roy Morgan Poll – M?ori Party soar to 9% Government sinks further
The Daily Blog
United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8
Stats Chat
Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good yarn, 1News
Bob McCoskrie's McBlog
Media Link: “A View from Afar” on the lame duck window of opportunity.
Kiwipolitico
Capturing a Country
NZCPR
Misuse of land use planning
Offsetting Behaviour
Tory Whanau may have to sell Wellington mayoralty to make ends meet
The Civilian
The Accidental Engagement
Imperator Fish
Legal Beagle: Election '23: The Special Votes
Public Address
Making this movie might have been a mistake
Liam Hehir
Why I am retiring from political blogging
Kiwi FireWalker
Angie Warren-Clark: Meet the Newbies
Dan Moskovitz

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